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Kevin Rudd - Source: Reuters -
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Australian opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull has failed to make an impact in opinion polls a year into the job, the Reuters Poll Trend has found, adding pressure on his party to find a replacement by the next election.
With Prime Minister Kevin Rudd raising the prospect of an early election over carbon-trade laws, Turnbull's opposition trails 16 points behind the ruling Labor party on a two-party basis, with 42% support to the government's 58%.
That compares with a much smaller deficit of 10.1 percentage points when Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as opposition leader on September 16, 2008.
The findings, if carried through to an election, suggest Rudd would be returned with an increased majority.
Despite Turnbull's poll difficulties, the main opposition Liberal Party has few credible alternative leaders, now that former treasurer Peter Costello has resolved to quit politics.
Some lawmakers believe shadow treasurer Joe Hockey may one day be a leadership contender, while Costello has not yet resigned from parliament, making it possible he could still change his mind and challenge for the leadership.
Turnbull took over when Nelson's rating as preferred prime minister was a lowly 19% compared with Rudd's 63 percent. But the latest Poll Trend has Turnbull only marginally better at 19.5%, while Rudd's rating has climbed to 67%.
Rudd has played down the chances of a snap election, but he continues to taunt the opposition about the need to pass his carbon-trade laws, which have already been defeated once in parliament's upper house and are due to be debated again in the Senate in November.
If the laws are rejected a second time in November, Rudd will have a legal trigger which will allow him to call an early election for both houses of parliament at any time.
The next regular Australian election is due toward the end of 2010.
Turnbull says he wants to negotiate amendments to the carbon-trade laws to avoid an early election, but the opposition is deeply divided over climate policy, which is shaping up as a major test of his leadership.
Rudd won the last election with 52.7% of the two-party vote. But his poll support has not dipped below last October's low of 54.7% since he took office.
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