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Barack Obama - Source: Reuters -
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With the passing of Labour Day, summer - officially - is over in the US.
Stylish ladies are proscribed from wearing white in public. The nights are expanding. Temperatures are decreasing, the humidity plummeting from the air like a failing bird.
Americans, as you probably know, call this time "Fall", for when the leaves on the trees change colour, then detach themselves, fluttering downwards, mimicking the snows that, here in the North East at least, will invariably arrive.
Fall's commencement marks the end of the silly season, otherwise known as August. It's like January in New Zealand. The journalists and politicians are on holiday, so - tellingly - there's no news. I know, I know, this isn't true objectively, but operationally it is. Events and items that would be left in an editor's wastepaper bin are given an unexpected life.
This curious time, when weird notions may gain traction, is often poison for an incumbent politician. A well organised holiday-spurning opposition may take advantage of the dog days, and catch them unawares. Thus it was with the brouhaha over Barack Obama's speech to America's school children , delivered just today.
One of the projects associated with the speech was initially, as per White House suggestion, that the kids might write a letter detailing how they could help the President.
Controversy didn't so much as erupt (it was the silly season after all, and the news cycle had slowed), as ooze out. Conservatives insisted this politicised innocents. Some schools refused to take the speech, or asked parents to approve their youngster's attendance. Fox News became interested. Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, ever reliable for a soundbite, suggested that Mr Obama was trying to create a personality cult, along the lines of Kim Jong Il.
The White House duly changed position, suggesting the kids might prefer to write an essay on how they would realise their potential.
It was a small backdown, but one that Republicans celebrated, coming as it did on the President's failures to get healthcare reform dealt with before the summer Congressional recess, the increasing appearance of a jobless recovery in the economy, and Afghanistan turning into a bloodier conflict than anyone anticipated.
Recent polls show Mr Obama has lost 6% of his approval in the first seven months of his presidency.
It's not the catastrophic 15% Bill Clinton lost, but neither is it the nine point bounce Reagan experienced. Reagan's ratings fell through the floor as the economy worsened, but that's another story.
Earlier today, I received letters from two leading Democrats. I opened James Carville's first. Carville is one of the most acute political commentators in the US, a political operative who helped elect Bill Clinton, who -because of his wide knowledge, and his almost impenetrable Louisiana accent - has the nickname "The Ragin' Cajun". He should have subtitles when he gets excited on CNN.
Sadly, the missive was not personal, but mere boilerplate about how Democrats need to raise $1.57 million dollars to elect senators - Democrats, bien sur - to help plow Obama's agenda through the American upper house.
The other request was clearly also for money (I was becoming wise). It came from Howard Dean , the Democratic National Committee Chairman. In this instance, Mr Dean wanted my dollars to assist the re-election next year of Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the man whom ex-Vice President Dick Cheney once cursed at on the Senate Floor.
(Note: Some may assert that my being on the Democratic mailing list is further evidence of communistic leanings. What it actually means is I signed up for Democratic party events during the election campaign. One had to do this to cover them. Republicans were more laissez faire, pretty much rock up, and you were in. That's, presumably, one reason why they lost. In politics, organisation rules.)
Of themselves, the letters weren't particularly interesting, but the envelope of the Carville's was. Just above my address, in the top left hand section of the envelope, where Americans typically enter their home address, was the following: "You think the Republicans have done their worst to make President Obama fail? You ain't seen nothing yet."
The same phrase needs to apply to Barack Obama's presidency. It's now become common to say Obama has lost his way. This is true, but neglects the paucity of talent within the Republican Party, and the lack of ideas. Assuming everything remains just as bad as it currently is; even if Mr Obama were found to keep goats in the Oval Office, he would still squeak to victory in 2012. Yet for the sake of cable news, both sides are able to air their disagreements, as if each are equally-matched political forces; if anything this inequality favours the opposition.
However, the President does need some legislative victories right now. Mostly, he needs to appear to have won on healthcare reform .
So on Thursday, Mr Obama will address the Congress on that very topic. It'll be broadcast live, though I understand Fox won't be taking it. The ratings don't justify his buggering up their prime time schedule.
The President has a knack of saving himself with speeches. Usually when subjects get small (such as when the Rev Jeremiah Wright, his preacher, was on high rote during the campaign with his "God damn America" sermon) Barack Obama the orator goes big, talking about moral urgency, and thrilling generalities.
Mr Obama will have to be big and small: Cognizant enough of the issue to make specific demands, inspirational enough to explain the necessity of his cause.
Also, he will have to convince three audiences. First, those in his own party who believe he hasn't done enough to advance the liberal cause of increasing health care. Secondly, his own party again: The Blue Dog Democrats, fiscally conservative and loath to add any more to what is the highest US Federal deficit since the end of World War II.
And he'll have to convince those who see him as flailing and ineffectual, a man who was elected on hope and change, but failed to demonstrate the stamina for all political seasons, not just the summer of America's adulation.
Read more of Tim Wilson's blogs here.
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