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US President Barack Obama campaigns for Ohio Governor Ted Strickland - Source: Reuters
No promises, but I'll try to avoid sporting / war / bushfire /
tsunami analogies in the description of the Midterm Congressional
elections that -as I write- are in the process of being
decided.
Turnout will be high. It's a cracking day in New York, and the
weather is like this in most of the US. Bright sun; flags flying on
government buildings, children smiling; all rancor and bitterness
momentarily quelled in a celebration of democracy.
Okay, that's wrong. Turnout will be high because many Americans are
angry. The Tea Party in particular, which like an animating force
that galvanizes a zombie from the grave, has given the Republicans
a second electoral life. The rancor couldn't be ranker.
Conventional wisdom holds that they'll take the house (the lower
chamber of Congress), but be deprived of a majority in
Senate.
My question: 'What will they want for dinner?'
Answer: The President, but more on that later.
In some cases this Republican-rout scenario involves voting in the
bums (it's an expression, dears) that were voted out four years
ago. Blame the economy. Blame unemployment. Blame self-reproach,
and buyers' remorse. People wanted a change from George Bush, they
just didn't want it to be that Democrat-y.
By Democrat-y, you could say government-expanding, and expensive.
The Federal deficit is at historic highs. People talk about buying
gold and burying it. The sense is that government is everywhere,
and when not doing enough, is doing harm.
By Democrat-y, I mean intellectually dishonest, fractious,
self-serving, cowardly, and weak-kneed. One of the centerpieces of
Obama's administration so far is a bill that extended healthcare
benefits to millions of Americans who hitherto had -presumably-
been doing their own surgery. But you'd be hard pressed to find a
Democrat touting this as part of their achievements in office.
Rather than running with the President, they're running from
him.
They're the other Obama zombies. His so-called mates.
Assuming the prognostications are correct (I tend to like Nate
Silver of
fivethirtyeight.com his models are
so elegant, and his prose dispassionate, no tsunamis in sight, or
bushfires. He says they'll get around 53 seats in the House), we
should ask what a Republican-controlled house will mean?
Power. Goodbye then to any extra stimulus, which many economists
suggest is the only activity that will perform its own shock
treatment on the US economy. Republicans will have control over the
House Ways and Means committee, for example. Or the House Oversight
and Government Reform Committee. The power to subpoena will be
available. Expect the air around the White House to darken with
scandal. Expect that the cover-up to be worse than the
allegation.
Some go further. In a piece in The New Republic (which -to be fair-
is the in-house journal for the clever liberal kids, and -you got
me - has zombies on the cover), Jonathon Chait says that if
Republicans get the House, they'll impeach the President.
He cites a number of over-reactions to small issues that have had
Republicans screaming for Obama's flesh. Chiat also mentions a
December 2009 poll that suggests that 35% of Republicans already
then favoured impeachment. And this was before he passed the
Healthcare bill.
Republican hatred of Obama is bewilderingly intense. I don't know
if Chiat's piece was to scare his fellow travellers, but it is
well-argued and not overly hysterical. Many Republicans see
impeachment as politics by another means.
Why wouldn't they?
So, let the voting end soon, let the earth be loosened in the
cemeteries; it's been said that this has been the dirtiest campaign
yet, but the real ugliness may be just around the corner.
Read more of Tim Wilson's articles.
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