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Source: Reuters
"How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?" future US presidential candidate John Kerry thus addressed a Senate hearing in 1971.
He was talking about the Vietnam War, a subject he knew something of it, having served there as a Swift Boat captain.
Of course, the words 'Swift Boat' and 'John Kerry' have a particular resonance for those who remember the 2004 campaign. Let's put that to one side.
The question Kerry asked is one that President Obama is grappling with in a general sense in Afghanistan, and more practically as he prepares to announce the withdrawal of (some say) around 10,000 US troops there; ten per cent of the total US fighting force, and one third of the 30, 000 surge troops he dispatched there in a surge in December 2009, almost 18 months ago.
At present speculation in the press ranges that Obama will announce the withdrawal of between 5-15, 000 troops.
The number 10,000 came from my friend Ann Marlowe, who is a leading expert on counter-insurgency, what's known to its devotees simply as COIN. She's on a listserv called 'the warlord loop', i.e. people who are plugged into COIN arguments and theories that are particularly relevant to Afghanistan. And she's visited the country many, many times.
Other people spend their summers in the Hamptons; Ann prefers to go to places like Khandahar. Her monograph on the life and intellectual context of French COIN giant David Galulua was published last year by the Strategic Studies Institute, and rewards reading by civilian eyes.
"If it is 10,000," says Ann Marlowe, "the it shows Mr Obama is listening to reason, and not his commander, General David Petraeus."
To describe Ann Marlowe being no supporter of John Kerry, or Barack Obama is to make a surge, of sorts, into understatement. She's that lonely provocative creature, a passionate Republican living New York. She would argue that the invasion of Afghanistan and all-but-routing of the Taliban was no mistake. She believes the country was headed in the right direction in 2002-2003 before the rot of corruption set in.
Ann Marlowe believes that the troop surge has not made Afghanistan safer, but has led to an increase in violence. "Put a graph of troop numbers in any particular area, and you'll also see a rise in what the Army calls significant acts. More IEDS, more attacks, more suicide bombings."
The Army view is that the fight is being taken to the enemy. Marlowe has little patience for this. "It's unfalsifiable, " she says, "by this argument if you took it to the limit, how many troops would you need in Afghanistan, four million?"
The size of reduction will tell how much confidence President Obama has in General Petraeus, which will have huge input in how the US manages its exit. Petraeus, who was the architect of the Iraq surge, had a powerful ally in Defence Secretary Robert Gates. But Mr Gates is leaving next week, and the Senate just unanimously confirmed Leon Panetta, an Obama loyalist, in the role.
I remember the young graduates at West Point when Mr Obama spoke. Of course the Army was managing the message and we talked only to the leading officer candidates. They were intelligent, fit and focused. As I write this, I wonder where they are now. Make you will of the Afghanistan policy in its intent, and what it has evolved to, once the withdrawal goes into effect, the question mutates and gets bigger.
Who wants to be the last person to die for a withdrawal?
Read more Tim Wilson opinion here .
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Add a Comment:
Post new commentNewzgal said on 2010-01-03 @ 15:46 NZDT: Report abusive post
Hi Tim, great blog. I agree right wingers have a Hobbesian view of existence, and like many I welcomed Obama’s presidency. However I always watched Fox News just to see how they were framing up the news (which far too many people rely on). I now find it more useful than ever to tune into the right just incase there is a kernel of truth in their rants as it seems the media and world have been far too soft on the new president and democrats, perfect recipe to slip things in!
jackdoitcrawford said on 2009-09-11 @ 23:24 NZDT: Report abusive post
Please don't label all people you disagree with, and put them in the same camp. Ayn Rand was pro abortion, achievement, reason, freedom, capitalism and happiness. She was definitely neither a conservative nor a libertarian. She also didn't want to live under a dictatorship. I see nothing wrong with this at all.
Kiwi in USA said on 2009-09-11 @ 17:58 NZDT: Report abusive post
I would have to disagree with Tim saying Bill ORielly is a right wing loon as if it were. He is defintly a independet and he always tells his viewers that. I know that there is plenty of loons like rush but come on, Obama is really turning America in the wrong direction. He has spent more money than all the presidents have combined. America is in trillions of dollars worth of debt.