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Julia Gillard - Source: Sunday -
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There will be sighs of relief from almost all sides of the New
Zealand parliament this week, with the result of the Australian
election finally being decided more than two weeks after election
day.
Labor yesterday won the support of two of the three elected
independents, and therefore the government benches for another term
- as long as that may last. You'd expect Phil Goff and the New
Zealand Labour Party to welcome a win for the centre-left across
the Tasman, but National will be just as delighted by the result,
both in terms of incumbency in these troubled times and because it
saves New Zealand's emissions trading scheme. That last point will
please the Greens here. Only Act Party MPs will be grinding their
teeth.
Julia Gillard becomes Australia's first elected woman Prime
Minister, but hers is a tenuous grip on the top job. She can
command a two party-three independent majority of one, with 76
seats to the Coalitions' 74. One scandal, one retirement, one
falling out and it's
all to play for again.
As a side note, it's interesting to see two friends of Q+A front
and centre in all this. Labor strategist Bruce Hawker, who has been
on Q+A several times,
was a lead negotiator with the
independents, while Peter Slipper, another guest on the
programme - when he said that as MP for Fisher on the Sunshine
Coast, he probably represented more New Zealanders than any other
politician outside of New Zealand -
is being touted as a potential
Speaker.
The National government here will have watched nervously Labor's
descent to near-loss despite remarkable economic growth. Every
other developed country would sell its grandmother for Australia's
economy, yet the people weren't impressed.
National knows it can't take next year's election for granted. Yet
strategists will be thinking that surely, surely National can't do
as much damage to itself as Labor did this year, and Labor still
won. They'll take comfort in that.
Perhaps most crucially, however, Labor has promised to put a price on carbon. It may be an emissions trading scheme or it may be a carbon tax, but either way it should - should - be enough political cover for the government to not have to back down on the ETS in this country.
New Zealand emissions trading scheme is due for review next year. National has made much of having to match Australia in all things, and has repeatedly claimed that our ETS was warranted, in part, because Australia and other allies are moving in the same direction.
If Australia had backed off, as it would have under climate
change-sceptic Tony Abbot, National would have been left exposed
and anti-ETS ACT would have made hay.
Now, assuming Gillard can rally the troops - and with the Greens
powerful in the Senate it looks likely - National can continue to
make that same argument. Our ETS looks safe.
Abbott is a curious creature. Close to John Howard, he created a
"work for the dole" scheme and supported a tough line on refugees;
he's a doubter on human-made climate change, a monarchist and a
conservative Catholic who's anti stem cell research, thinks
abortions should be "rare" and isn't that keen on gays. Yet he's
also said Howard was wrong not to apologise to the Aboriginal
stolen generations and helped bankroll court cases against Pauline
Hanson and her hideous One Nation party.
He now sits in wait for just one mistake. The strength of Gillard's
discipline will have to be rod-like.
That too, will be something that National might like to watch with
interest.
