-
Supporters of Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra rally in Bangkok - Source: Reuters -
Related
Protesters in Bangkok vowed to prolong a mass anti-government
rally to force Thailand's government to call elections, despite
doubts the mainly rural movement had what it takes to sustain the
rally.
On their fifth day on Bangkok's streets, the red-shirted protesters
called for a "class war" and threatened to make life unbearable for
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva after splashing blood on the gates
of his home and office, forcing him to sleep in a military base and
preventing him from attending parliament.
Relieved by the lack of violence and confident Abhisit will survive
the showdown, investors have poured into Thailand's financial
markets, driving the baht currency to a 20-month high and pushing
stocks near 22-month peaks this week, although shares retreated
slightly on Thursday.
"The rally is peaceful without violence, making investors dare to
invest," Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij told reporters, noting
Thai stocks were already climbing before the protests, gaining 63%
last year.
But Kosin Sripaiboon, head of research at UOB Kay Hian Securities
in Bangkok, predicted the protests could last weeks, possibly into
May, urging investors to remain cautious.
"We believe the red shirts have enough capacity to continue and it
could extend into April or May," Kosin said.
The protesters, supporters of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra,
say they have been marginalised by the military, urban elite and
royalists who back Abhisit.
They said they will ride across Bangkok on Saturday in pick-up
trucks and motorcycles in an attempt to convince others to join
them.
"It will be the beginning of a class war," Nattawut Saikua, a
protest leader, told reporters.
Although the number has dwindled from a peak of up to 150,000 on
Sunday, tens of thousands remain, with the numbers ebbing during
the midday heat before swelling again in evening to sing and dance
to folks songs, and listen to political speeches.
Premier at military base
While Abhisit is still backed by the military and a majority in
parliament, a prolonged protest could start to undermine his
leadership if he is seen to be failing to resolve the impasse or
his ability to govern is hampered.
Concerns protesters may block the entry and exit points to
government buildings have stopped Abhisit from going to his office
or attending a parliamentary session near the main protest
site.
Roads have also been partly blocked in the historic heart of the
city, testing the patience of Bangkok residents.
Abhisit, an Oxford-educated economist who came to power at the end
of 2008, has operated since Friday from a fortified military base
that has doubled as a safe house.
But it is unclear how long the protesters can keep up the
pressure.
The movement's many leaders have different ideas on how to topple the government or when to end the rally.
Its core leaders are distancing themselves from another, more
militant faction who often threaten violence.
"It's a multi-pronged struggle and it's hard to predict which way
it is going to go and whose plan is going to prevail," said Sukhum
Nuansakun, an independent political analyst.
"Their rhetoric and reality don't always match."
The National Human Rights Commission met on Thursday with Abhisit
in a bid to defuse tension and get the two sides to talk.
"If the protests are within the rules, the government has no
problem with a talk," Abhisit told a news conference.
But he declined to say whether there are plans to begin
negotiations.
Analysts said a long-term street rally requires better organisation
- from financing to supplies and transportation.
Lengthy rallies in Bangkok are not unusual.
In 2008, protesters who opposed Thaksin's allies in the previous
government occupied the prime minister's office for three months,
and then blockaded Bangkok's international airport until a court
ousted the government.
But Sukhum said the "red shirts" look less organised.
"It's different from the anti-Thaksin movement which was more
disciplined with one clear direction and one arch nemesis."
Others doubt the protesters will get far without intervention by
the military or the judiciary, both of which have helped to bring
down Thaksin-allied governments.
The military's top brass remain close allies of Abhisit.
Thaksin was ousted in a coup in 2006 and later sentenced in
absentia to two years jail for graft.
His allies were ousted by two court rulings in 2008 which
disqualified two prime ministers, paving the way for Abhisit.
Thaksin now has Montenegrin citizenship and arrived there earlier
this week, officials in the Balkan country said.
