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Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) speaks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas - Source: Reuters -
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The seemingly never-ending Middle East peace talks are back on
the front burner this week, with an ambitious timetable and
possibly insurmountable hurdles.
Israel's Netanyahu and the Palestinians' Abbas will go to
Washington, to allow President Obama to wave the starter's flag and
partake in other associated symbolism, but the chances that he will
be The One capable of mediating peace in this troubled region rely
on factors way out of his control.
The biggest shadows looming take the form of Hamas and the issue of
continued Israeli building within the settlements it has illegally
established on land it took during the 1967 war.
As part of the Zionist quest to establish 'facts on the ground'
settlements on occupied lands are paramount because once they are
in place they are hideously difficult to uproot, as Sharon saw when
he ousted the Jewish settlers from Gaza.
Between expansion of settlements and the Israeli construction of
the dividing wall, which has confiscated vast tracts of Palestinian
land including much needed agricultural land, Palestinians are
seeing their vision of a viable sovereign state disappear.
Israel imposed a partial settlement freeze which is due to run its
course on September 26. It is partial because it has not stopped
settlement building. Rather Israel says it needs to continue some
building to accommodate natural growth in its settlements. For some
strange reason, that natural growth includes Jews who move in to
the settlements, not just an increase in the number of children
born to settlers already in situ.
Abbas has said that should settlement construction resume once the
peace talks are underway, it will be read that Israel is not
serious about negotiating for peace, and he will walk out of the
talks. How can he face his constituency when his people's land
continues to be gobbled up to ensure it will not be part of a
settlement?
Israel says there can be no pre-conditions to the talks.
That is not genuine because Israel has already set the
preconditions by virtue of it being a state and the PLO being an
organization under its rule, to which the settlement and wall
constructions are glaring evidence.
Recently Israel has been dragged reluctantly towards acknowledging
a two-state solution, but it will only accept a Palestinian state
that is demilitarized and of which Israel patrols/controls the
borders, air space and sea. That is not a sovereign state.
Israel wants to maintain vast tracts of land including some of its
settlements on the West Bank which destroys any contiguity for
Palestinians, let alone a proper link between the West Bank and
Gaza or East Jerusalem. That is not a viable state for
Palestinians.
Israel considers Jerusalem must be the undivided capital of the
Jewish state of Israel&including the East of Jerusalem which
Palestinians want as the capital of their state of Palestine. That
is a pre-condition.
Palestinians have a huge issue in the form of the 'right of return'
of all Palestinians and their descendents who were driven from
their lands during the formation of the Jewish state in 1948/9.
They want this to be addressed. Israel does not want a bar of it,
saying that the issue can be sorted out by Palestinians when they
have their own state and the refugees can be accommodated there.
Meanwhile any Jew from anywhere in the world is welcome to settle
in Israel, even if they have never even visited it or have no
family ties whatsoever.
So if that's not a big enough bag of demons, how about what to do
about Hamas.
It is widely condemned as a terrorist organization and neither the
US nor Israel (along with many other countries) will deal with it -
despite the fact that Israel and the US had a huge hand in creating
it as a foil to Arafat and his Fatah faction. Yet another costly
example of US interference blowing up in its face - think Saddam
Hussein and a host of other unpleasant actors who have at some
stage had serious US backing.
Hamas is democratically elected and forms a kind of de facto
government in Gaza and it doesn't see any point in peace talks with
the enemy Israel. In fact it is likely to actively sabotage them,
and this division between Hamas and Fatah seriously undermines the
authority of Abbas. No matter what is decided, if anything, he can
not count on Hamas which rules 1.5 million Palestinians in Gaza,
signing up.
Yet it would seem that Hamas is essential to any viable peace deal
- morally repugnant as that may be. After all, what say Netanyahu
and Abbas get really close to clinching a deal&Hamas outside
the tent will prove menacing, particularly as it is widely believed
to be in receipt of support from Iran and therefore strategically
positioned as Iran's proxy in its virtual war with Israel.
The economic war that is being waged on Gaza by Israel is not
working and while it has impoverished Palestinians trapped there,
it has not rid the Strip of Hamas. Part of the peace negotiations
must include a plan to deal with Hamas that Israel and Fatah are
agreed on&perhaps a loosening of the sanctions and border
crossings (albeit well observed to prevent weapons coming in) so as
to improve the daily lives of Gazans and thereby diminish Hamas'
claim to be able to run a government.
And just as Abbas has this headache, so too does Netanyahu go to
the table with major political concerns in the form of his
right-wing coalition.
He has within his government politicians who refuse to even
consider concessions on Jerusalem, a two state solution, 'right of
return' or settlements. Some consider greater Israel the homeland
of the Jewish people and want it cleared entirely of any other race
- read Palestinians. They don't talk West Bank, they talk Judea and
Samaria. They represent a population that has grown relatively
comfortable behind the massive barrier which keeps out rockets.
Israel is prospering. There is little in the local news about the
dire situation of most in Gaza or the inability of West Bank
Palestinians to get through the border crossings to farm the land
they have been cut off from, or turn up to jobs they are trying to
keep in Israel.
Netanyahu has politicians who are, in short, sitting poised to
pounce on him should he cross those very right wing lines. He is
fighting for his domestic political survival on a very public
stage, and he knows it.
So what's the point?
Well veteran negotiator George Mitchell who has toiled away at
convincing the parties to recommence these talks thinks there's a
point, and it would be too pessimistic to dismiss him before they
even begin.
International pressure may be playing a significant coercive role,
but Netanyahu, Abbas, Obama, Clinton, Egypt's Mubarak and Jordan's
Abdullah all think its worth another shot.
It is a safe bet Obama still rues the day the Nobel Prize Committee
awarded him the gong before he's achieved this most elusive of
peace goals. Many before him have been 'nobelled' for efforts in
this theatre, yet we are still here. At least Obama is not
obscenely rushing to deal with this in the dying days of his
administration so as to preserve his legacy. It can only be hoped
that he does have time on his side, and all involved will avail
themselves of it.
Read more of Jane Young's blogs at Pundit.co.nz
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