Kim Jong-il's death leaves Koreans in NZ in fear

Published: 5:21AM Tuesday December 20, 2011 Source: ONE News/ Reuters

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Shock over the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has quickly turned to concern over the stability of the Korean Peninsula.

And Koreans living in New Zealand are keeping a close eye on events unfolding at home.

Jong-il died yesterday at the age of 69.

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North Koreans poured into the streets to mourn the death of the iron leader as state media hailed his untested son as the "Great Successor" yesterday.

Prime Minister John Key said he hopes the death of Jong-il will lead to a better future for people in the Stalinist country.

Key said North Koreans suffered extensively while under the rule of Jong-il and hopes for a smooth transition in leadership.

"We would hope, long term, for an improvement in the outlook for the people of North Korea who have suffered very badly," he said.

"We hope for a brighter future for them.

"I think the world will be looking on with some trepidation but obviously we hope that's a smooth transition."

Key, like the rest of the world, has concerns about what the death will mean for North Korea and says the takeover by Jong-il's son, Kim Jong-un, will be cautiously approached.

Korean Jay Lee, a JL Partners accountant who is living in New Zealand, said his friends and family are feeling nervous following the death.

And Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman says a totalitarian society that relies heavily on one strong leader can easily be tipped over once that leader has gone.

Patman said one of the questions marks hanging over the regime is whether the military will accept the succession of Jong-il's son.

Little is known of Jong-un, who is believed to be in his late 20s and studied for a short time at a school in Switzerland.

Author of Crisis In Korea Tim Beal told TV ONE's Breakfast Jong-un "has an advantage of having an outside education" and is "much more conscious of the outside world than his father and his grandfather".

"I don't see there is going to be any great change from the North Korea side. The place to look is South Korea."

"I think things are going to be relatively smooth."

"If I'm wrong and there is turmoil and if there is invasion from the South then anything could happen and that would affect the whole world, including New Zealand."

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who was the last New Zealand official to visit Korea, told TV ONE's Breakfast the successor is similar to his father.

He said the system put in place by Jong-un's grandfather is still in place today.

Outstanding leader

North Korea's official KCNA news agency lauded Jong-un as "the outstanding leader of our party, army and people."

"We have esteemed comrade Kim Jong-un, absolute surety that the leadership of Comrade Kim Jong-un will lead and succeed the great task of revolutionary enterprise."

But there was uncertainty about how much support the third generation of the North's ruling dynasty has among the ruling elite, especially in the military, and worry he might need a military show of strength to help establish his credentials.

"Kim Jong-un is a pale reflection of his father and grandfather. He has not had the decades of grooming and securing of a power base that Jong-il enjoyed before assuming control from his father," said Bruce Klingner, an Asia policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

"(He) may feel it necessary in the future to precipitate a crisis to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or deflect attention from the regime's failings."

Under Jong-il's rule, an estimated 1 million North Koreans died during famine in the 1990s. Even with good harvests, the state cannot feed its 25 million people.

The funeral of Jong-il will be held on December 28.

Security concerns

News of the death of Jong-il saw South Korea stepping up its military alert.

South Korea, still technically at war with the North, placed its troops and all government workers on emergency alert, but said there were no signs of any unusual North Korean troop movements.

Security concerns over the hermit state were heightened after Seoul said the North had test-fired a short range missile prior to the announcement of Jong-il's death.

It was the first known launch since June and in a bid to calm tensions, South Korea's defence ministry said it might abandon plans to light Christmas trees on the border, something the North has warned could provoke retaliations.

China, the North's neighbour and only powerful ally, said it was confident the North would remain united and that the two countries would maintain their relationship.

"We were distressed to learn of the unfortunate passing of (Jong-il) ... and we express our grief about this and extend our condolences to the people of North Korea," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu was quoted by Xinhua news agency as saying.

"We are confident the North Korean people will be able to turn their anguish into strength and unify as one," he said.

The United States said it was committed to stability on the Korean peninsula as well as to its allies. There are some 28,000 US troops on the divided peninsula. Across the heavily armed border, the North maintains an estimated 1 million troops, one of the world's largest standing armies.

Japan, too, said it was watching developments closely.

"We hope this sudden event does not have an adverse effect on the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula," Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told a news conference.

- With Newstalk ZB

 

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