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Frank Bainimarama - Source: ONE News -
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Fiji will be be automatically suspended from the Commonwealth at midnight Tuesday after failing to meet deadlines for democratic elections.
The date was set by world leaders frustrated at the regime's failure to return the country to democracy after it overthrew the last government in a December 2006 coup.
The Commonwealth wanted a commitment for elections by 2010 but Fiji's interim government says elections won't be held before 2014.
The suspension will affect international assistance and stop its athletes competing in the Commonwealth Games.
Professor Brij Lal, an expert in Fiji politics at Australian National University, says there is "not a drop of hope" that the country will go to the polls next year.
"There will be no elections in 2010 and I rather doubt that there will be elections in 2014," says Lal, speaking from Suva, where he is researching the country's increasing poverty under Bainimarama's regime.
"The interim regime changes its plans every day so it's safe to say suspension is as sure as day follows night."
He says while the suspension will be largely symbolic, it should be taken very seriously by the government.
"It might not mean a cut to trade but it is a serious sign of international rejection of what Bainimarama and his men are up to. That stands for something."
Steven Ratuva, a Fiji specialist at the University of Auckland, says Fiji was suspended from the Commonwealth for a decade from 1987 and is not scared to repeat this experience.
"It's a case of been there, done that," Ratuva says.
"They know that they'll survive it and Bainimarama seems to have little interest in maintaining those colonial ties."
Bainimarama told local media last week that he will not be dictated to by external forces.
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