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Source: Reuters -
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China may have built as much as 134 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear
power capacity by 2030 - a 15-fold increase to the equivalent of
nearly a third of the current global total, the World Nuclear
Association said.
While no new start-up in China was scheduled until 2011/2012, a
huge programme was underway following central government approvals
for the first time in many years, the association said.
"The government's previous target of 40 GW for nuclear generating
capacity by 2020 has now been increased to upwards of 70 GW - 86 GW
has been mentioned," it said in its 14th report on the nuclear
industry.
By the end of 2009 China could have 20 reactors under construction
on various sites, including Ling Ao, Qinshan, Sanmen, Haiyang,
Yangjiang, Hongyanhe, Fuqing, Ningde, Fangjiashan and Taishan, the
report said.
As of August, there were 436 operating nuclear units around the
world with total capacity of 372 GW, including 11 units in China
with capacity of 8.6 GW.
There were 48 reactors under construction in the world for a
combined capacity of 43 GW, including 14 in China for 14 GW.
"Within the global picture, there are some significant changes in
the country breakdowns. The most obvious feature is the increasing
prominence of China and India," it said.
Referring to China, the report added: "A remarkable feature is that
work is commencing on third and fourth units at several sites,
immediately after the initial two units, with sites anticipated
eventually to take six or more reactors."
While the indigenous CPR-1000 reactor was the mainstay for the
programme, there were contracts for four of Toshiba-Westinghouse's
AP-1000s and two of Areva's European Pressurised Reactors (EPR), it
said.
Upper scenario becoming more likely
On global development up to 2030, the report said there might be a
revival of nuclear power as countries try to cut carbon emissions
while securing energy supply.
In a higher scenario, the global capacity might reach 818
GW.
In the reference scenario, the association predicted global
capacity would grow 2.2 percent per year to 600 GW by 2030, which
should keep the nuclear share in the electricity supply at close to
the current 15%.
But there might be a decline as a significant number of current
plants are to retire after 2010, it said.
"Unless there is a further upturn in construction within the next
10 years or so, it is conceivable that the majority of reactors
likely to be operating in 2030 are already in use today," it
said.
It took 4-7 years to build a new reactor, after several years of
planning and licensing activities, the report said.
For the possible nuclear revival to take place, the association
assumed no adverse impact from the credit crunch, while a severe
impact, lasting many years, might lead to the possible
decline.
"The greater optimism now surrounding nuclear power naturally means
that the upper scenario is becoming increasingly likely and the
lower scenario less so," the report added.
In India, the outlook for nuclear capacity has brightened after its
2008 deal with the United States that ended a three-decade ban on
nuclear trade between the two, it said.
Nevertheless, the association said it would be difficult to achieve
the government target for 20 GW by 2020 and 63 GW by 2030 because
of the low base today.
The association called Russia's plan still very ambitious, despite
its downward revision of its 2006 programme to complete up to 42
reactors by 2030.
It now expected to accomplish one unit per year, instead of up to two units per year.
