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A computer-generated image shows a futuristic Gold Coast in Queensland - Source: Reuters -
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Australia circa 2050, population 35 million, climate change
induced rising sea levels have flooded the Gold Coast resort
region, apartment blocks are now used to grow food and people
commute in monorail pods above the sea.
In another city, Australians live on floating island pods with
apartments both below and above sea level; the population has
shifted from land to the sea because of the sky-rocketing value of
disappearing arable land.
Climate change has also forced many Australians to move inland and
create new cities in the outback, relying on solar power to exist
in the inhospitable interior.
These are just a few urban scenarios by some of Australia's leading
architects shortlisted for Ideas for Australian Cities 2050+ to be
staged at this year's Venice Architecture Biennale.
While these images may sound like science fiction, many architects
and demographers say Australian cities must radically transform to
cope with the pressures of population growth and climate change or
face social unrest and urban decay.
"If we don't get this right ... all hell breaks loose, or our
cities break down, there's not enough water, there's not enough
power," said one of Australia's leading demographers Bernard
Salt.
Australia survived the global financial crisis, due largely to
China buying its resources, and while resource exports will
continue to bolster its economy for decades, future prosperity may
be threatened by a growing, ageing population, according to an
Australian government report released in February.
The report said Australia's population was set to rise by 60% to 35
million by 2050, mainly through migration, yet cities are already
groaning under the present population.
"One of the major frontier issues for Australia over the next
decade will be the future of our cities," said Heather Ridout,
chief executive of the Australian Industry Group, which is calling
for major infrastructure investment in cities.
Among the beneficiaries of such development would be property firms
like Lend Lease, Stockland and Mirvac Group, building material
groups Boral Ltd and CSR, Australia's top engineering contractor
Leighton Holding Ltd, and the country's biggest private hospital
operator, Ramsay Health.
But demographers warn that Australian cities need to not only
expand infrastructure, but ensure future residents have equal
access to city facilities.
Racial riots at Sydney's Cronulla beach in 2005 and a series of
attacks against Indian students in the past year are signs of
growing social tensions in Australian cities, say
demographers.
"If we have a rising population, we need to make sure that we have
appropriate infrastructure, so that we don't lose the social
cohesion that we take for granted," said Larissa Brown from the
Centre for Sustainable Leadership.
"We need affordable access to housing, to transport, to
healthcare."
While Australia is double the size of Europe, three-quarters of the
country is sparsely populated countryside or harsh outback, leaving
the bulk of the population to inhabit a thin strip down the
southeast coast. In fact, around 50 percent of the population live
in the three largest cities - Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane - on a
combined land area that is about the size of Brunei or Trinidad
& Tobago.
Transport key to future cities
Australia's post-World War II sprawling suburbia is under strain
due to inadequate transport and public facilities.
"We're at risk of seeing increasingly dysfunctional cities ...
we're starting to see sort of fragmentation and breakdown of the
transport systems and increasing frustration for the residents of
those cities trying to get around," said Jago Dodson, urban
researcher at Griffth University.
A State of Cities 2010 report released in March said Australia's
major cities contribute nearly 80% of GDP, but warned that
worsening urban congestion would have a serious negative impact on
economic growth if not addressed.
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics
estimates the cost of road congestion for the Australian cities was
about $12.2 billion for 2005.
Left unchecked, this is projected to rise to $26 billion by
2020.
"Urban congestion contributes to traffic delays, increased
greenhouse gas emissions, higher vehicle running costs and more
accidents," said Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese.
"It is a tragedy that many parents spend more time travelling to
and from work, than at home with their kids. Relieve urban
congestion and we improve our quality of life as well as our
productivity," said Albanese.
In February, a 10-year, $65 billion transport blueprint was
announced for Sydney which will see a new heavy rail network, 1,000
new buses and possibly a fast train linking Sydney with the port
city of Newcastle, to its north.
Sydney, Australia's biggest city is daily gridlocked, forcing a
motorist who travels 22 km a day to spend three days stuck in
traffic each year.
Private transport currently accounts for about 90% of urban
journeys in Australia and Transurban Group, which operates the
nation's major tollways, believes car usage will continue to rise,
despite a move to public transport.
"Despite concern about climate change, road use in our cities is
predicted to grow significantly in the next 20 to 30 years," said
Transurban in a 2009 sustainability report.
"New road projects will increasingly be part of integrated
transport solutions for entire cities or transport
corridors."
But the company warned future road projects will cost more to build
and develop due to climate change, with Australia's government
seeking to introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme and
pre-approval analysis of climate impacts of new projects.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's government plans to invest $46 billion
in transport infrastructure in the next five years.
Improving efficiency in energy and transport infrastructure could
increase GDP by nearly two percent, or the equivalent of $97
billion, says Australia's Productivity Commission.
Shape of cities to change
Australia has one of the world's highest home ownership rates, but
the generational dream of a suburban home and garden looks set to
be shattered.
Over the next few decades, more Australians will be living in
high-density housing, what some demographers call the
'Manhattanization' of cities.
A new Sydney urban plan released in February calls for 700,000 new
dwellings by 2036, with 70% of development to occur within existing
suburbs and only 30% in new suburbs.
If Sydney does not consolidate, the city would need to expand
1.5 times in size to accommodate its growing population and would
run out of available land within 30 years, said the New South Wales
(NSW) state government plan.
Demographer Salt questions whether Australians will give up the
Neighbours dream, citing the worldwide TV hit about life in a
suburban Australian street.
"Neighbours...is absolutely integral to the Australian psyche,"
said Salt, a partner at KPMG.
Whether Sydney adopts a Manhattan or low-rise European urban plan,
a rising population will put more pressure on housing stock.
Australia already has one of the most expensive house prices in
the world and housing affordability is falling.
The Commonwealth Bank's CommSec forecasts housing prices, which
rose 12% in 2009, will rise by 8%-10% in 2010 due to a rising
population and a lack of stock.
"For investors, rising rents and home prices is an attractive
combination," said CommSec's chief economist James Craig.
Leightons forecasts annual growth in residential construction of
six percent through to 2014.
Mirvac, one of the country's top apartment construction firms,
also forecasts growth, citing $988 million worth of exchanged
contracts, focusing on large-scale projects which are transforming
old industrial sites in Sydney.
Sustainable future cities
Australia has an inhospitable interior forcing more than a quarter
of its 20 million people to live in the southeast corner, where the
two biggest cities and jobs are located.
The projected population increase will impact heavily on
Australia's fragile environment and require urban planning to
ensure future cities are environmentally sustainable.
Australians have the biggest houses in the worlds, nicknamed
McMansions, and demographers say homes may need to be retro-fitted
with water tanks and solar panels to make cities more sustainable
and reduce their environmental footprint.
Between 1998 and 2004 Sydney's environmental footprint grew from
6.67 to 7.21 hectares per person, but some Australians warn there
is a limit to the country's population carrying capacity.
"A bigger Australia doesn't mean deeper soils, it doesn't mean
larger river flows, it doesn't mean more rainfall. We're only
bigger in one sense - the increase in the total number of humans
crammed into the narrow coastal strip," said Bob Carr, former New
South Wales state premier.
Sydney this month began pumping desalinated ocean water to
supplement its drinking water supplies which are frequently
threatened by drought.
The plant will generate 250 million litres of water a day or
around 15% of Sydney's water supply.
Almost every major Australian city has a desalination plant pumping
or under construction.
"Water's going to be critical to the future of Australia, perhaps
more than anything else," said Mike Young from the Environment
Institute at Adelaide University.
Australia has one of the world's highest greenhouse gas emissions
rates per capita, with about 80% of electricity generated by
coal-fired power stations.
Australia's expanding population means it will need to produce 50%
more power over the next 20 years, say energy experts, adding a
scarcity of water may stifle urban growth by threatening future
power supplies as Australia's coal-fired power generators are
driven by steam and cooled by water.
Climate change will necessitate a change in Australia's urban
design, said the Transforming Australian Cities report in
2009.
In January 2009, just prior to Australia's most deadly bushfires
which killed 173 people, a heatwave in Melbourne resulted in
blackouts as power supplies failed and bushfires threatened to cut
power to the entire city.
Melbourne's rail system, designed for cooler conditions, overheated
and failed, and water consumption trebled with the city's water
storage at only 33% capacity.
"On a daily basis we are witnessing the failure and short comings
of these traditional systems," said the report.
"Existing urban settlements and infrastructure are increasingly
vulnerable and will need to be protected against these events.
Compact cities with high densities are emerging as the most robust
in the challenges posed by climate change. They are capable of
operating on lower consumption."
