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Thailand's court ruling to dismiss Prime Minister Somchai
Wongsawat had prevented a slide into chaos but the potential for
more instability remained, the head of ASEAN said.
"Right now the situation is quite fragile, but definitely the
situation is in the process of a more stable, more acceptable and
more legitimate government. It will take some time to find a
balance," Surin Pitsuwan, head of the 10-nation Association of
South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), said in an interview.
Thailand's Constitutional Court on Tuesday dismissed the government of Somchai, whom anti-government protesters accuse of being a puppet of his brother-in-law Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 army coup and is now in exile.
"At least it has put a stop to the slide into chaos, even more chaos," said Surin, in Hong Kong for a meeting of former US President Bill Clinton's Clinton Global Initiative.
Thousands of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters packed up and left Bangkok's main international airport on Wednesday after an eight-day blockade but Surin, a former Thai foreign minister, said there could be renewed tension.
"If the process ends up with a similar kind of structure (to before) then you can foresee some more tension in future. But if it could produce a credible and capable cabinet or leadership then you can expect stability and accommodation. So it depends on the outcome of the parliamentary process," he said.
Thaksin allies still dominate parliament and are expected to elect a new premier from among their number on December 8 - the third prime minister in as many months.
ASEAN on Tuesday postponed a summit scheduled for December 13-17 in Thailand until March because of the conflict. Surin said the meeting could take place before then, not necessarily in Thailand. Indonesia has offered to host some associated meetings.
"I think an earlier meeting is possible and personally I would welcome that. But this will very much depend on the member states and Thailand as chair," he said.
Bad timing
ASEAN comprises the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Laos,
Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia. Its
dialogue partners China, Japan and South Korea are also due to
attend the summit.
Thailand's preoccupation with its political problems was bad timing given the urgent need to address the global financial crisis, Surin said.
"It's certainly put some concern on the way in which we (ASEAN) are moving forward. But on the whole I think ASEAN is still a bright spot on the international landscape," he said.
"Our growth will be affected (by the financial crisis). It will not be as good as before but, still, it's a region that will experience growth," Surin said.
The Thai crisis stranded hundreds of thousands of foreign tourists over the past week as the PAD blockaded Bangkok's two main airports. Surin said three years of political turmoil showed the pressure Thailand was under to adapt to globalisation.
"This is part of the adjustment to the pressure of globalisation: how to remain competitive, how to restructure our political system so as to be conducive to economic progress," Surin said.
"It's not very tidy, it's not very orderly. It has been very
long ... but we hope they will find a way out."
Surin said the PAD, led by a group of royalist businessmen,
academics and activists, had become a political force that was
putting pressure on established parties and that Thailand's
neighbours would have to make allowances.
"The real economy certainly will suffer, investment has already dried up for a few months .. but they have to get through the political tension first. They realise it cannot be prolonged too long," Surin said.
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