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Afghan opposition candidate Abdullah Abdullah sits at his residence after a news conference in Kabul - Source: Reuters
Afghan President Hamid Karzai's election rival, Abdullah Abdullah, is due to announce whether he will take part in next week's disputed run-off vote, as Western diplomatic sources say he is leaning toward pulling out.
Abdullah cancelled a planned trip to India on Saturday, just before a deadline he had given Karzai to sack Afghanistan's top election official was to expire.
Afghanistan has been racked by weeks of political uncertainty after widespread fraud marred the first round, with security another major concern after a resurgent Taliban vowed to disrupt the November 7 run-off.
A Western diplomatic source says Abdullah is leaning toward pulling out of the election but may be using the threat as a "negotiating ploy" with Karzai.
"We have heard that talks with Karzai have broken down and he (Abdullah) is leaning toward not taking part in the election but this could also be a negotiating ploy," says the diplomatic source, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the issue is sensitive.
"It is not a done deal."
A second source says it is very likely Abdullah will not take part but cautions that could still change.
With Afghanistan's political future hanging in the balance, US President Barack Obama is also weighing whether to send thousands more troops to Afghanistan.
Obama met US military leaders in Washington on Friday as part of a strategy review.
Abdullah's campaign team issued a short statement on Saturday saying the former foreign minister had called a loya jirga, or grand assembly of elders, for 6pm Sunday NZT.
"Dr Abdullah Abdullah will a give speech about the election and he will announce his decision in the loya jirga tent," the statement says.
Abdullah's aides said earlier he had cancelled the trip to India because of uncertainty over the election.
Diplomats say there are questions over whether Abdullah will use his news conference as a concession speech to incumbent Karzai or declare a boycott of the run-off.
Western officials have noted that Abdullah has not opened any campaign offices in Afghanistan since the run-off was called last week. Neither candidate has campaigned openly.
Diplomats and analysts have said that, according to the constitution, it is possible the run-off might go ahead with Karzai as the only candidate if Abdullah pulls out.
They fear that would have a serious impact on the government's legitimacy.
Speaking in Abu Dhabi, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said such a situation was not unprecedented.
"I don't think it has anything to do with the legitimacy of the election. It's a personal choice which may or may not be made."
Power-sharing?
Talk of a possible power-sharing deal between Karzai and Abdullah has also grown as a possible solution to the deadlock.
The US Embassy in Kabul says it is a matter for Karzai and Abdullah to decide if they could come up with a constitutionally sound solution acceptable to Afghans.
Western diplomats have said privately Abdullah may have overplayed his hand with last week's ultimatum to Karzai, which included a demand to dismiss three ministers in a bid to avoid a repeat of the first-round fraud.
Karzai has already indicated he would not give in to Abdullah's demand. Abdullah has not said yet what he would do if the officials were not removed.
The run-off was triggered when a United Nations-led investigation found that widespread fraud, mainly in favour of Karzai, had been committed during the August 20 first round.
The US already has about 70,000 troops in Afghanistan and the decision to send more hinges on whether the Afghan government is seen by US lawmakers and the public as a legitimate and viable partner.
Many commentators and Western diplomats believe Karzai will likely win the run-off, adding pressure on Abdullah to withdraw for the sake of stability.
It would also avoid the mobilization of thousands of foreign troops that would be needed to help secure polling stations after poor security and Taliban threats cut voter turnout in August.
The Taliban have called on Afghans to boycott the run-off and have vowed to disrupt the poll, their threat underlined on Wednesday by a suicide attack on a Kabul guest-house used by the UN in which five foreign UN staff were killed.
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