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Australia's new Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott - Source: Reuters -
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Australia opposition leader Tony Abbott won the Liberal leadership last December by one vote.
Now he's lost the chance to become prime minister by just two.
Indeed, if Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor had decided to back the coalition instead of Labor on Tuesday, the opposition leader would be moving into the Lodge.
Ten months ago, no one expected Abbott to get that close.
He's gone from the political street fighter who Liberals hoped would sure up their support base, to a party hero who cut down Kevin Rudd and almost toppled Julia Gillard as well.
Australian National University political analyst Norman Abjorensen says that means there's no doubt Abbott will be given the opportunity to take the coalition to the next election - whenever that might be.
"It's the most certain thing in Australian politics," Abjorensen said.
"He's brought the coalition back from a moribund state less than 12 months ago to within an ace of winning government."
Abbott will be formally re-elected as Liberal leader on Thursday.
It's expected his deputy, Julie Bishop, will keep her position too.
She heaped praise on Abbott after he admitted to being disappointed that Oakeshott and Windsor had decided to back Labor.
"Tony transformed the political landscape in this country," Bishop said on Tuesday.
"He has secured a place in political history."
Bishop said Abbott had brought the party together in a way no one could have imagined and proven to be "one of the most effective leaders of the opposition in history".
Abbott secured the Liberal leadership on December 1, 2009.
He defeated Malcolm Turnbull in a three-way vote that included opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey, and immediately reversed the opposition's support for Labor's emissions trading scheme.
He rolled out the "great big new tax" line of attack which he'd also unleash - in May 2010 - against Labor's proposed mining tax.
To woo women voters he shamelessly stole the Rudd government's plan to introduce a paid parental leave scheme - and made it more attractive.
Then, he started throwing jabs - with the left on Labor's "incompetent" handling of the roof insulation scheme, and with the right on the school halls stimulus spend.
There was also a never-ending stream of hooks delivered in the form of one simple line: "We will stop the boats".
After Rudd was rolled in June, Gillard in July called an election for August.
Many thought Abbott would implode during the five-week campaign but instead a disciplined opposition leader made it to election day on August 21 relatively unscathed.
It took 17 days after that for him to learn he hadn't pulled off what would have been a most extraordinary victory.
The independents who gave Gillard victory want the new parliament to be more consensus-driven and collegial.
But Abjorensen says that won't happen because Abbott is "naturally combative".
On Tuesday, the opposition leader admitted as much himself.
"We will be an even more effective opposition in the coming parliament than we were in the last one," he said.
"(Where) the government delivers, we will give credit where it's due. To the extent that it doesn't, we will hold them ferociously to account."
Abjorensen argues that aside from holding Labor to account Abbott needs to improves his economic and policy credentials before the next poll.
He'll also need to keep an eye on Turnbull - who still harbours ambitions of being prime minister one day.
On Tuesday, Abbott was asked what role the former Liberal leader would have in the next Abbott opposition.
He suggested he'd be keeping Turnbull close.
"Malcolm is an extremely able person," Abbott told reporters.
"I've always believed that he was an adornment to the parliament.
"I'll have to have a talk with him but I think he can expect to be a senior member of the coalition going forward."
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