Climate change prediction breakthrough

Published: 6:21PM Monday March 24, 2008 Source: ONE News

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New Zealand scientists have developed what they believe is a world first, a new way to measure the release of greenhouse gas locked up in soil.

They have made the discovery in a joint study with Scottish scientists and it means we may be able to forecast how quickly our planet will warm up.

"We are excited because it's very relevant at the moment.  We need to predict how the climate is going to change and of course that's very related to the atmosphere, the vegetation, the soil," says David Whitehead.

The scientists at Landcare Research have been getting their hands dirty for three years.  Now for the first time, they have been able to differentiate how much old historical carbon is being released from soil and that is important.

"The implications of knowing that are that we will be able to determine for the first time really what the consequences of climate and land use change might be" says Peter Millard.

As the planet warms up, the carbon is released into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas.

"More CO2 is released from the soil, which means that the temperature is going to increase further , it could almost be a runway reaction," says Whitehead.

There are two types of carbon.  New carbon, which has recently entered the soil through trees and old carbon, which has been locked up in the soil for hundreds of years.  It is the amount of this old carbon that provides the clues to help predict climate change.

"We really need to know how rapidly the temperature in the atmosphere is going to increase on a global scale," says Whitehead.

And for a global problem, the answers are coming, slowly but surely.

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