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Following are some analysts' views on a newly released video of
Osama bin Laden marking the sixth anniversary of al Qaeda's
September 11 attacks:
Rohan Gunaratna, author Inside al Qaeda
"Osama's call to the Americans to convert to Islam is indicative of
an al Qaeda attack on US targets. Before the Prophet (Mohammad)
attacked his enemies he urged his opponents to embrace
Islam."
"Osama is presenting Koranic injunctions before planning to
attack."
Amr El-Choubaki, expert on Islamist
movements:
There's nothing new there, except for... when he called on the US
to convert to Islam. In my opinion that's different from his
earlier statements that contained a political dimension, references
to oppression, and contained language that was broader than direct
religious creedal language.
I think it suggests a return to a closed and impossible
understanding of religion.
I think when there's impossible talk floated it reflects a crisis
in discourse... It's clear his influence within the al Qaeda
organisation... is now limited, so the impossible discourse comes
to the forefront because it costs nothing. No one's going to ask
him how he plans to convert the US, and with what means. But when
he talks about specific objectives, that he'll attack this area, or
that the US will withdraw from Iraq in a month... there people will
expect results. So it's clear he's not capable of achieving
anything possible, so he's switched to impossible discourse, which
no one can call him out on.
Khalid Al-Dakhil, Saudi Political Science professor At King
Saud University:
There was a US report warning of a possible attack, then came this.
The whole message is focused on the United States ... this suggests
that there is a threat.
The more important thing is the message that leaving Iraq, which
appears more likely now, will not solve the problem.
Abdel Bari Atwan, Editor Al-Quds newspaper,
London:
He would like to say that he is not dead, as many people
anticipated, and he is still the leader of al Qaeda...
It was very significant, the transformation of his image, of his
character which he wanted to convey in this videotape.
He would like to say: 'I am not the old Osama bin Laden, I am the
new, mature Osama bin Laden, I am the spiritual leader of al
Qaeda.'
Usually his appearance is connected with a coming attack. This
could be a warning shot. This is sort of a rallying video. Maybe
there is a message to his followers -- go ahead and do what you
want to do.
There will be a sigh of relief among his supporters that he is
still alive. But definitely it is not really the strong speech they
expected, it is not newsy. The only new thing is his appearance,
his conversion to civilian leader and ideologist of al Qaeda.
M.J. Gohel, Asia-Pacific Foundation, London
There is a very theatrical and amateur feel about this particular
message, and I suspect that Adam Gadhan, the California-born head
of As-Sahab, al-Qa'ida's media arm, has played a major role in
scripting and production of this video, and also orchestrating its
release.
Bin Laden dyeing his hair and beard, whilst hiding out somewhere in
Pakistan, is really bizarre because it makes him, a man who claims
he wants to be a martyr, look vain and ridiculous as he seems to
have the time and priority to do a major makeover before appearing
on camera. It does not fit with the image he has so carefully
nurtured, the masquerade of his being a holy warrior devoid of
normal human traits.
He seems to have undergone changes in both his physical appearance
and his personality.
It is truly odd that bin Laden speaks about "the reeling of many of
you under the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and
real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes..." because the
wording and sentiments are those of a rebellious young western-born
individual and not the head of al Qaeda.
Because video tapes featuring bin Laden speaking to camera are so
rare, the release of this particular tape could herald a major
attack, though remarkably this message contains none of his usual
open threats against the United States.
If it is indeed bin Laden then he is exhibiting a very different
personality trait and shift from previous messages.
Fares Bin Houzam, Saudi independent researcher on al
Qaeda:
This is just a message to his followers and foes that he exists and
that he is still the leader of al Qaeda.
I am 100 percent sure that this man has no power to plan (for al
Qaeda). He is just giving signals to his followers around the
world.
Mohamed El-Sayed Said, Deputy Director of the Ahram Centre
for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo:
The message is much more threatening this time. It's confident, it
uses iconic language that suggests, 'I'm commissioned to wage an
unending war against you, and the only way to get peace is to
convert to Islam.'
It's very clear that he took care to give the impression that's
he's at ease, that he's on the offensive and he controls the
situation, that's he not a fugitive, he's very comfortable ... He's
saying 'Now I can show you mercy or not.'
He's in a state of battle, a state of constant, unending war until
he Islamises the world ... So they're not talking about Iraq,
they're talking about the world.
