-
Related
International pressure has pushed Rwanda and Congo to agree to end Africa's biggest war but plundering could prolong the bloodshed at the heart of the continent.
More violence in eastern Congo and a growing row over the looting of resources by foreign soldiers stationed in the country mean ending the war will need steely determination, analysts say.
Under a memorandum of understanding signed in South Africa on Monday, Rwanda promised to pull its army out of the Congo within three months in return for assurances the Congolese would track down militias behind Rwanda's 1994 genocide.
Fugitive Rwandan army (FAR) fighters and Hutu "Interahamwe" who slaughtered 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus gave Rwanda grounds for entering the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1998 and have been a stumbling block to sporadic negotiations to end a war which has killed an estimated two million people.
"One has to wonder what the methodology will be for controlling and disarming the Interahamwe and ex-FAR elements," said a senior diplomat in the Congolese capital Kinshasa.
"And if that can really be done, one then has to wonder about the return of some 20,000 mostly Hutu troops who have been in Congo for eight years suddenly returning to a tiny country such as Rwanda, which is now led by the Tutsis they tried to eliminate," the diplomat added.
Analysts say there are between 30,000 and 40,000 Rwandan troops in the Congo - nearly 10 times the figure provided by the Rwandan government itself. Estimates for combined ex-FAR and Interahamwe range from 12,000 to 40,000.
World support for peace
South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma said his country was prepared to commit troops to police the accord and the two sides said they would press for a stronger peacekeeping mandate for the UN observer force in the Congo (DRC).
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Congo's Joseph Kabila would all sign, officials said.
"It's extremely important progress. This is the biggest breakthrough between Rwanda and the DRC that we could have hoped for," said South African regional analyst Jan van Eck.
"The war came from Rwanda, in the sense that the presence of the Interahamwe and ex-FAR brought about Rwanda's involvement. The importance of this agreement is that it addresses Rwanda's security concerns."
The Pretoria deal was struck under heavy pressure from the West and from South Africa, which sees the many-sided Congolese war as a major obstacle to a scheme to revive African economies, and to the brand-new African Union.
Regional analysts say Rwanda has been marginalised since a rival Ugandan-backed rebel group did a power-sharing deal with Kinshasa earlier this year, and cracks are beginning to show.
Members of the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD), the rebel group Rwanda supports in Congo, met with bloody retaliation when they mutinied in eastern Kisangani city in May.
A United Nations report accused the RCD of killing at least 163 civilians in the crackdown, and Human Rights Commissioner Mary Robinson insisted those responsible must be punished.
Refugees forced to flee
Rwandan forces sent to put down another revolt by renegade commander Patrick Masunzu in the eastern province of South Kivu have forced tens of thousands of people from their homes during weeks of heavy combat, aid workers in the region say.
"Rwanda is under a lot of pressure. They want to be seen as making progress on the peace track," said Fabienne Hara of the International Crisis Group.
"But when you look at what is happening on the ground in eastern Congo you wonder whether what happened in South Africa yesterday has anything other than diplomatic significance."
Diplomats and analysts said both sides were informally on notice from Western donors to perform or face international condemnation, the certain loss of generous aid and possible economic sanctions.
"They are appeasing the international community with this agreement," said Philip Kasaija, head of international relations at Uganda's Makerere University. "They are just playing around."
Most observers agree Rwanda is anxious to show the outside world it is ready to talk peace, particularly ahead of another UN report expected to slam growing involvement of Rwandan forces in looting the Congo's natural resources.
But by the same token, many say the lure of Congo's natural wealth - which has long defined the battle lines between six foreign armies scrambling for a bite of the cherry - will further complicate efforts to implement the deal.
Peace would mean a host of illegal mining and logging operations set up by foreign army officers might have to fold - or at least share their spoils with the locals.
"Nobody is saying it's going to be easy - it won't be easy," Congolese Information Minister Kikaya Bin Karubi said.
© Reuters
World News Video
-
Dangerous rush to Everest summit (1:59)
-
Dozens killed in Syrian massacre (2:09)
-
'King of Romance' competes in Eurovision (1:46)
