Published: 8:19PM Thursday October 20, 2005
Source: Reuters
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is already grappling with an uncompromising China and a hostile, opposition-dominated parliament.
He is now
under attack from a new quarter - a corruption investigation
involving a close aide.
Analysts say if Chen fails to clear doubts raised by the probe, it
could undermine his credibility and cost votes for the ruling
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
The December 3 election for county and city magistrates can be
considered a mid-term test for Chen, who is looking for a legacy
before his second - and final - four-year term ends in 2008.
While it may be too early to declare him a lame duck, analysts say
domestic politics may keep the president busy and leave him little
time to chart the island's future course with its giant neighbour,
China.
Beijing claims Taiwan as its own and says the self-ruled island
must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.
It distrusts Chen's independence-leaning DPP and has been making
overtures to the island's two main opposition parties, which favour
closer ties with China.
Chen has won the last two presidential elections after five decades
of rule by the Kuomintang, or the Nationalist party. But the DPP's
support is falling, because of the corruption allegations and its
inability to push policy through parliament.
"Public opinion clearly shows people are dissatisfied with the
DPP," said Liao Dachi, who teaches political science at the
National Sun Yat-sen University.
"If the situation continues, Chen will spend most of his time
dealing with internal problems rather than pushing through his
policy initiatives," Liao said.
A recent poll by the mass-circulation United Daily News, which is
often critical of Chen's government, showed Chen's approval rating
slumping to a record-low 25% versus 79% when he first took office
in 2000.
Domestic woes
An investigation into the role of Chen's former deputy chief of
staff, Chen Che-nan, in a snowballing scandal linked to the import
of Thai labourers in a subway project has dealt a blow to Chen's
image, prompting some DPP members to demand reforms.
Chen Che-nan denied the allegation and resigned from his job as
presidential adviser. He is not related to the president.
Adding to the Taiwan leader's troubles, the chairman of China Steel
Corporation, Lin Wen-yuan, who is also close to the president,
resigned after coming under fire for taking a hefty stock bonus
that lawmakers said was inappropriate for a state enterprise.
Members of the president's family have also come under criticism
for receiving a free upgrade of their air tickets to first class
during a recent flight.
"The rest of his term will not be smooth," said political analyst
Hsu Yung-ming from the Academia Sinica.
"With his hands tied on the domestic front, any breakthrough on
cross-Strait relations looks highly unlikely. Beijing also will not
let Chen Shui-bian score any points."
Chen, who swept to power on an anti-corruption manifesto, swung
into damage control mode this week.
In a
three-hour interview with Sanlih Television, he promised there
would be no cover-ups if any party or government official -
including himself - was found guilty of corruption.
"The scandals have shaken the confidence of his supporters," said
Emile Sheng, a political scientist at Soochow University.
"If the DPP fares poorly in the December elections, that's the end
of Chen's presidency because he won't be able to get anything
done," Sheng said.
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