Labour leads in TV3 poll

Published: 6:56PM Wednesday September 07, 2005 Source: RNZ

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New Zealand's Labour government appears to have regained ground in a see-sawing campaign ahead of next week's general election, according to a new opinion poll.
 
The 3 News-TNS poll put support for Prime Minister Helen Clark's Labour Party at 45%, up six points, and 36% for National, down five points.
  
The latest figures clash with the results of other recent surveys that had put the Nationals as much as eight points ahead of Labour after leader Don Brash unveiled across-the-board tax cut proposals last week.
  
Brash has said the tax cuts will help stem a flow of up to 600 Kiwis leaving NZ for Australia every week.
  
He also called for a rethink of the current policies meant to help minority groups, including Maori.
  
Under New Zealand's complicated proportional voting system, neither major party is likely to be able to govern alone and will have to seek coalition partners from minor parties after the September 17 election.
  
Labour's most likely partner, the Green Party, got 7% in the poll while New Zealand First, headed by maverick MP Winston Peters, hovered at the 5% threshold of getting MPs back into parliament.
  
Adding to the electoral volatility, Peters said today New Zealand First would not be part of a coalition government with either Labour or National.
  
Clark has hailed the latest polling figures."The TV3 lead is quite a big one but averaged out across others I think we're still looking at a positive outcome," Clark told the broadcaster.
  
Brash said: "Polls are volatile, we expected them to be volatile at the beginning of the campaign and I expect that will continue."
  
Commentators say votes are flowing away from minor parties to major parties because the differences between Labour and National are now more distinct.
  
"This time, instead of 30% (of the total vote) being split among the small parties it'll be half that, if that," Auckland University politics professor Barry Gustafson said.
  
National's chances of getting the numbers for a ruling coalition were dealt a blow by New Zealand First's announcement it would stay on the cross benches after the election.
  
Its leader Peters said he would support the party with the most number of seats on confidence and supply in exchange for backing of his key policies.
  
"Let me be clear, we have no preference between (Labour or National) so we will not be endorsing one over the other," Peters said.
 
"We don't think there's sufficient common grounds to base a formal coalition on and we're not prepared to compromise our principles simply to pursue the perks of office."
  
Peters had previously refused to reveal his post-election intentions, but the evaporation of support for the anti-immigration New Zealand First during the election campaign forced his hand.
  
He says the move is to clear up that question so the party get more attention for its policies, which include improving law and order and benefits for seniors.
 

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