Wherever you turn at an Oscar event these days, you are likely to hear someone say of director Martin Scorsese: "It's his turn."
Scorsese is not only a master of American cinema, he is one of the major neglected directors at the Academy Awards. But the Oscars have a history of overlooking Hollywood's greats.
While Scorsese is considered a shoo-in after winning the Directors Guild of America award for his crime thriller The Departed, Oscar voters often snub frontrunners. That rule is as true for Scorsese as it is for a host of other races including top categories like best actor, supporting actor and supporting actress, Oscar watchers said.
"I never use the word shoo-in because the Oscar folks always have a surprise up their sleeves," says Entertainment Tonight critic Leonard Maltin.
"Remember it is a five-way vote. In a presidential contest if you have a third-party candidate, that person is considered a spoiler," Maltin said, adding that every Oscar category has three potential spoilers.
This year, Scorsese's opponents are all first class professionals: Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima, Stephen Frears for The Queen, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Babel and Paul Greengrass for United 93.
Even Scorsese has stopped talking about his chances for fear of jinxing himself. He has been seven times previously nominated for writing and directing. Yet, he has not won a directing Oscar in spite of having helmed films like the classic Raging Bull.
Nor have his movies claimed best picture. Rocky knocked out Taxi Driver in 1976, and it was downhill after that. GoodFellas fell victim to Dances with Wolves in 1990.
Oscar surprises
But his luck could change with Departed, a gangster film featuring one betrayal after another that took the director back to his roots of gritty dramas set on the East Coast after a recent misfire with Howard Hughes biopic The Aviator.
Hollywood has declared Scorsese a lock for best director, and his film is a strong contender for best picture. Yet, that race is simply too close to call, Oscar watchers said.
They said any one of the five nominees could could win although Little Miss Sunshine, Departed and Babel are probably ahead of Letters from Iwo Jima and The Queen.
"The Oscars never go according to script. Right now, besides Scorsese, it looks like we have four acting nominations that are locked up, but we really have to ask if they are," said Tom O'Neil of Theenvelope.com.
British actress Helen Mirren is heavily favoured to win the best actress award for her performance as Queen Elizabeth II in The Queen, but the three other acting races are tight.
For months, Forest Whitaker has been the seeming favourite for his larger than life portrait of Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland. But in recent weeks, both Peter O'Toole and Leonardo DiCaprio have picked up support for their work in Venus and Blood Diamond, respectively.
"I voted for Leonardo because I got tired of hearing how great Forest was," said an Oscar voter who asked not to be named.
Newcomer Jennifer Hudson is considered the favorite for best supporting actress for her work in Dreamgirls and while the experts think she will win, they are not so sure about co-star Eddie Murphy's chances for best supporting actor.
Alan Arkin, the cranky grandfather in Little Miss Sunshine and Mark Wahlberg, the good cop in The Departed, seem to be coming on strong in the supporting actor category.
At the recent Oscars nominee lunch, the loudest cheers went to Scorsese, Whitaker, Mirren, O'Toole and, oh yes, virtually every other nominee. Try reading those tea leaves.
