Post-budget blues seem to have hurt Labour this month with the latest One News Colmar-Brunton poll showing Labour lost three points down to 41% - trailing National for the first time since July last year.
National rockets up six points to 43%.
New Zealand First is down one point to seven, the Greens are down one point to three, Act is steady on two, the Maori Party is also steady on two and United Future has no change on one.
Assuming the Greens will make the 5% threshold and Tariana Turia, Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne all hold their electorate seats as expected, parliament would have Labour with 50 seats and National with 52.
Dunne says United Future would go with the biggest party and that would give the National block 53 seats - still needing New Zealand First's eight seats to get a majority.
If New Zealand First went with Labour, along with the Progessive's one seat, Labour would have 59 seats. The Maori Party with two and the Greens with six seats could come in to give Labour the majority. These are the sorts of calculations all parties will have to make after the election.
In the preferred prime minister stakes Helen Clark drops two to 39%, but Don Brash picks up the five he lost last month to move back up to 20%. Peters drops five - falling to eight.
