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Dejected Bay of Plenty players - Source: Photosport -
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So much for the 14-team version of the Air New Zealand Cup lacking competitiveness.
With two rounds to go, only North Harbour, Otago, Manawatu, Northland and Counties can begin thinking about next season - be it in the Air New Zealand Cup or the Heartland Championship. The rest are still desperately scrambling to be in the top four at the end of Round 13 - and the semi-final picture won't be clear until full time is blown on the last game.
While Canterbury look like home semi-final certainties, the eight teams below them are separated by just 11 points and the permutations for those teams are endless.
Canterbury. 1st place, 42 points. Hawkes Bay (Away), Southland (Home).
Last year the red and blacks went undefeated through the round robin after losing their first match to Manawatu. This season they could afford a slip-up, which could well come in Napier on Thursday night, but should beat Southland the week after to cement first place. Most of the All Black forwards returned to action in the convincing shield win over Manawatu, and Dan Carter's return to the number 10 jersey will give more potency to an already-humming backline. Hot favourites to go all the way again this year.
Prediction: 1st, 47 points.
Hawkes Bay. 2nd place, 35 points. Canterbury (H), Northland (A).
A late-season surge has put the Magpies in the box seat for a home semi, but with Wellington in similarly-rampant form, they need to win both games to make sure of it. This weeks clash with Canerbury shapes as the match of the round robin and there will be plenty of cause for optimism at McLean Park, while five points will be there for the taking the following week in Whangarei against a Northland side with little left to play for. Still, they will need first five Matt Berquist to maintain his rich vein of form and star winger Zac Guildford to continue running in tries from everywhere.
Prediction: 2nd, 44 points.
Wellington. 3rd place, 34 points. North Harbour (H), Tasman (A).
New Zealand rugby's most erratic bunch of entertainers appear to be finally all singing from the same songbook, having outscored their opponents 116-35 in their past three matches. Rodney So'oialo is nearing his best, while the return of Cory Jane and Conrad Smith has added spine to an exciting but inexperienced backline. To cement a semi spot they'll have to beat two teams with nothing to lose: North Harbour, who have now won three of their past four; and Tasman, who will be keen to depart the top tier of domestic rugby with a bang. Might just have one more shocker left in them.
Prediction: 3rd, 40 points
Southland. 4th place, 33 points. Taranaki (H), Canterbury (A).
The Stags still have their destiny in their own hands after awaking from a mid-season slumber in some style against Tasman. Their goalkicking is still a a worry, and much depends on the form and fitness of Jamie McIntosh and Jimmy Cowan, but they'll be eyeing maximum points at home to Taranaki. Then it's a final round crunch match at AMI Stadium, where they haven't won since 1981, against a Canterbury side that would take pleasure in dumping their southern rivals out of the competition.
Prediction: 5th, 37 points.
Waikato. 5th place, 31 points. Northland (H), Auckland (H).
How crucial might Tim Mikkelson's last minute bonus point try at Carisbrook prove? Another of the big boys to have come good at the right time, the Mooloos have won four on the trot and will only get stronger as their returning All Blacks shake off the cobwebs. They should make that five against the Taniwha, leaving Saturday week's home match against Auckland as a potential sudden-death quarter-final, depending on how Southland fare. They may just do enough to sneak in, which would be a remarkable achievement given that they sat dead last after four rounds.
Prediction: 4th, 40 points.
Auckland. 6th place, 30 points. Counties (H), Waikato (A).
Another middling season for the perennial underachievers sees them on the outer in the race for semi-final places. They need Southland and Wellington to falter, and then must reverse the form book against Waikato, who trounced them 34-13 at the same venue last year. Auckland's record against other Super 14 franchises this season is not pretty and they'll need to lift several notches to beat the Mooloo men on their own patch. Even victory over Counties this weekend is not a given, considering they've conspired to lose to Harbour and Tasman this year, and were a hair's breadth away from going down to Manawatu.
Prediction: 6th, 36 points.
Tasman. 7th place, 28 points. Otago (A), Wellington (H).
Already resigned to relegation at the end of the season, Tasman have a chance to smear egg all over the NZRU's faces by sneaking into the semis, but do they possess the motivation to do it? They were lucky to get to nil in their 41-point thrashing by Southland on Saturday, and still face a difficult trip to Carisbrook as well as a final round clash with in-form Wellington where they may finally come unstuck.
Prediction: 7th, 32 points
Bay of Plenty. 8th place, 26 points. Manawatu (A), Taranaki (H).
Their two remaining fixtures may be eminently winnable, but the Bay have run out of steam and don't look like winning anything at present. After an admirable first half of the season, a growing injury list and a lack of muscle up front are beginning to take their toll and even two bonus point wins probably won't be enough for the team who sat atop the ladder five short weeks ago.
Prediction: 8th, 30 points
Taranaki. 9th place, 24 points. Southland (A), Bay of Plenty (A).
A very long shot. Need to win both their games with bonus points, then hope Auckland beat Waikato and Southland pick up no further points.
Prediction: 9th, 29 points.
What's your top-four? Feel free to comment below.
Add a Comment:
Post new commentrach101 said on 2009-10-12 @ 20:11 NZDT: Report abusive post
Canterbury-Hawkes Bay-Wellington-Waikato...The Bay to beat the Cantabs this weekend..cmon Hawkes Bay get in behind the boys! GO THE BAY!
Cann River Bob said on 2009-10-12 @ 13:10 NZDT: Report abusive post
Wellington 2nd on 44 points, Hawkes Bay third on 40. Can't see Wellington losing again this season and can't see the Bay beating Canterbury.
Otara Panthers said on 2009-10-12 @ 09:27 NZDT: Report abusive post
Canterbury-Hawke's Bay-Wellington-Auckland. Auckland to take care of buisness against Waikato - chur!