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US Marines - Source: Reuters -
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The war in Afghanistan, we can now confirm, is "serious". So says General Stanley McChrystal, head of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan in his eagerly awaited review of military strategy that was issued this week. To which I'm tempted to reply, so before it was just a light-hearted war? A bit of fun?
McChrystal, however, is not a flippant man and what he's saying in earnest is that the Taliban-led insurgency is gaining strength. For American troops August was the deadliest month of this eight year war, with 47 soldiers killed, mostly in the south of the country. So a new game plan is welcome. The aim: defeat extremist terrorist groups. The method: Protect civilians, ensure good governance, and rebuild the economy.
In other words, less drone bombing, more hearts and minds. For all the risks, NATO and US forces will be encouraged to get out of their armoured vehicles and step outside the walls of their bases to engage with the public.
Better late than never. As some commentators are saying, Afghanistan was the 'other war' for years under the Bush administration, and as such as under-funded and under-manned.
McChrsytal's new approach seems to draw heavily on the work of David Kilcullen, who was interviewed on Q A a couple of weeks ago. Kilcullen has long argued that the vast majority of the insurgents we are fighting in Afghanistan are "accidental guerrillas". They have no particular love for the Taliban, but if an army's marching through their land, they will fight it. As Kilcullen told Paul Holmes, "we should get out of the business of invading people's countries because Al Qaeda are there".
That's a clear and present question for John Key and all New Zealanders right now. The provincial reconstruction team in Bamiyan has done some great work; indeed Bamiyan saw more votes cast than any other province. But for the first time Kilcullen gave us an idea of exactly what the SAS will be doing over there.
"One of them is what we call time sensitive targeting, which is about dealing with enemy that we call high-value targets; that is, Taliban leaders, Al Qaeda, and other military-type targets on the ground".
In other words, our SAS are hired assassins. How comfortable are you with that?
US and European leaders are starting to realise the hole they've dug for themselves in that country. There are huge questions about whether America and its allies, including New Zealand, now have the will and the wherewithal to carry on in Afghanistan. US public opinion is turning against the war, European leaders all look at their feet when their commanders ask for more troops, and the recent elections likely to see Hamid Karzai re-instated are about as legitimate as, oh I don't know, the Florida election re-count in 2000.
Even conservative commentator George Will has argued in his Washington Post column this week that it's time to get out and leave Afghanistan to its own devices. He asks why America should be nation-building in Afghanistan. If there, why not Yemen or Somalia? It's the right question to ask. Or, at least, it would have been back in 2000. The only honest reply now is that America chose this war and, once the UN belatedly gave its blessing, so did New Zealand. As a result we've got a responsibility to clean up our mess before we pack up and go home.
Kilcullen reckons that can be done in between two and five
years. For all his criticism of the original invasion, he
recognises you can't just walk out tomorrow without causing chaos.
Even if we stick it out for a few years it will be tenuous;
Afghanistan could slip back into the hands of terrorist-types at
any time. But it will at least give Afghanis a chance of a country.
Right now, that's the least we can do.
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