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Don McKinnon - Source: Q+A -
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Panel discussions hosted by Paul Holmes
In response to JOHN KEY INTERVIEW
PAUL Time to welcome the panel - Dr Jon Johannson from Victoria University; and this week we welcome Sir Don McKinnon, the former National Deputy Prime Minister, former Commonwealth Secretary General and now chair of Auckland Regional Facilities; and Mr Mike Williams, former Labour Party president and the head of the Howard League for Penal Reform. The teacup tape - how much did it damage him and what about the response?
SIR DON MCKINNON - Former Deputy PM
I dont think its damaged him really much at all. I mean, when
a prime minister says, I believe this was private on a point of
principle, its got to be taken seriously by anyone. You cant
just let your principle change the following day if youre the prime
minister. But I think hes said, Look, its a frustration more
than anything else. If hes worried about things, itll be, How
can I do better for Pike River? How can I do better for the
Christchurch earthquake? How can I do better for the oil
spill? What happens if Greece falls out of bed tomorrow, sort
of thing, and those are the big issues that hes handling well.
PAUL He seems to really believe in the principle, though, that a private conversations a private conversation.
MIKE WILLIAMS - Former Labour President
I think he does, and its convenient for him to do so, but it
really doesnt seem- I mean, most of its leaked out already.
It seems to me there were two things in it - one is irrelevant, one
is slightly damaging. The irrelevant one is theyve appeared
to have agreed that Don Brash is a bit of a weirdo. Now,
everyone knows Don Brash is a bit of a weirdo, so thats no news to
anybody. Hes quite a nice weirdo, but a weirdo
nevertheless. The second thing - theyve given life to Winston
Peters, because this was a mistake. Apparently, what they
agreed was that Winston Peters vote was dying out or something like
that. Now, that is A) untrue - the demographic that Winston
appeals to is actually getting bigger and bigger - and B) its a
silly thing to say, because it gives Winston oxygen and youre
seeing it on your programme this morning. He wouldnt have
been here if it hadnt been for that.
JON JOHANNSON - Political Analyst
It also seems theres blow-back in Epsom that it proved
counterproductive for what the whole reason for getting together
for that cup of tea.
PAUL It didnt work for Epsom, did it?
JON No.
PAUL Isnt that the strangest seat battle youve ever seen?
JON But thats-
MIKE Cant think of any-?
JON That is part of the wash on Saturday night is if ACT is despatched in Epsom, and thats despite the Prime Minister showing a clear preference for one certain result, you know, that is a slap in the face from, actually, his most supportive electorate in the country.
DON On the other hand, if, in fact, Epsom voters feel that Winston Peters is generally coming back, they may decide to vote tactically, which theyve been rather ambivalent about in some cases.
MIKE Yeah, but, Don, the problem about this - with ACT scoring at sub-1%, there is actually no advantage in having John Banks, because he might just end up-
JON If youre not maximising seats-
MIKE Exactly.
JON theres no strategy.
MIKE Itll turn into a Peter Dunne party or a Jim Anderton party.
PAUL I think with the rise again of Mr Peters, the votes might fly to the Nats in Epsom, mightnt they?
DON Well, Epsom voters will be thinking very strongly about the influence-
JON But the other side of this too is weve got to see for a
week different images of our prime minister, and theres been a real
King Canute quality about him that hed previously not seen.
So one of the principles as Mike was saying, theres mixed
motivations here, and one of the principles was his brand
protection. And on that score, you know, I think hes done
longer term damage. Its not going to hurt him for Saturday,
but theres longer term issues here as a result.
MIKE Yeah, I think hes- The Prime Minister is a little less
bulletproof than he was.
JON Well, even in todays interview, Paul, we heard three times today, I reject that proposition. Well, you know, when youre actually talking about empirical fact and youve got the Prime Minister rejecting that, you know, that just starts to accumulate.
DON Look, weve heard for the last, you know, four or five days, everyone on the left has decided the Prime Ministers on- hes rocking back, you know, hes vulnerable. Suddenly, hes suffering from stress. I mean, nothing could be further from the truth, but some should know this-
MIKE Not the people on the left.
DON everyone has decided theyve got to make the most of, and it is dancing on a pinhead, frankly.
JON I dont see how its the left-
DON Its not a stress thing.
PAUL The public dont like it. The public dont care. The economy - how realistic is it to hope for 3% growth - both parties are hoping for 3% growth - and to try and balance the books by 2014, 15? As I was saying, at the moot of the boardroom, the word fairy tale was used?
MIKE Yeah, well, Don, Rod Orams called it delusion, and I think thats right. You know, Labour could have painted a different picture. National has maxed out the overdraft. You know, the international credit-ratings agencies have said that. If things dont come right, where do we go next? And the question that should be asked is austerity, which is causing all sorts of problems in Greece and soon to do so in Italy, or stimulation. And I dont think theres any money left for stimulation. That would appear to be the big question in the economy.
PAUL But in the end, over the next, what, three years, Labour are promising to borrow $221 billion. The Nats are doing $220. Theyre pretty much the same, arent they? And as for the credit-rating agencies, I mean, they were donkey deep in the same scheme, werent they?
MIKE Absolutely.
PAUL So-
MIKE Its hard to know why we take them seriously.
PAUL I know. They-
DON Its pretty hard to make any judgement when youre looking at the uncertainty in Europe right now, and its a matter of, I think as Mr Key said this morning, youve got to be fast on your feet.
PAUL Got to be fast on your feet.
JON But there is an issue here that the longer the delay of the Christchurch rebuild and the centrality of the Christchurch rebuild for the future health of, you know, the short term future health of the New Zealand economy, that makes me very sceptical that these numbers-
PAUL The Christchurch Chamber- The Canterbury Chamber of Commerce now believe the rebuild is 30 billion - going to be a cost of 30 billion. The politics of the week, presumably will Key be- will he win enough to govern alone?
MIKE Id say there are two possible outcomes to this election. Outcome number one is all the polls are proved wrong. Now, thats going to happen sometime, but-
PAUL When? (laughs)
MIKE Exactly. Outcome number two is National governs on its own. And if you believe the numbers, thats what theyre saying. I would put one caveat on that - what the Labour people are finding in their canvassing is still a huge number of undecideds, and its where they jump or whether they may even stay home. And remember in the last election, about a quarter of a million people who voted Labour in the election before just stayed home. So thats the only caveat Id say, but youre looking- Id say youre looking at National governing in its own right, which brings another dynamic in altogether.
PAUL There we will leave it just for a moment.
In response to PHIL GOFF INTERVIEW
PAUL Jon Johannson, Sir Don McKinnon and Mike Williams. So, how do you react to that? Hes fighting better than people expected him to fight, I think, isnt he?
MIKE Look, its good solid performance, but Don just said, you know, there are some elections which are unwinnable. I dont think this ones all over, and as I said to you in the break, I ran four election campaigns, won three of them. I cant think how if I was running Labours election campaign how I would have run it any differently. I think theyve done a good job. Its been a good campaign. John Keys had a big glitch in his campaign, which was the Cuppagate business - I havent seen that happen - there was a stumble in Christchurch by Phil Goff which got played up.
PAUL Well, it was a big stumble. Hes still a bit uncertain about the numbers this morning too, I noticed. I mean, hes sensitive in that area, isnt he? Yes.
DON Well, I think, you know, we saw him turning on what has been Phil Goffs performance. Yes, I agree sometimes he talks more than what he has to, but, you know, Ive been detecting he and John Key in age are not that far apart - to me, theyre a generation. So many things in what Phil Goff is saying actually take me back to the 1980s when he came into Parliament just a little bit after I did. Theres quite a big gap between them in that respect. I think thats just something that exists.
PAUL Its a very peculiar thing, isnt it? Its a very strong observation.
JON Yeah, okay, and its less perceptible to me, I have to say, because in a generational sense Goff is essentially Keys older brother. But I think, you know, what Goff has to do, and one thing Ill say about Phil Goff is he continues to remain, you know, boyishly looking. I remember what Bill English looked like a week out from the 2002 election, and the exhaustion was palpably obvious. Phil needs to get Labour voters to focus really on just two things. His one ace in the hole has been the assets sales. Now, okay, it might not take points off National, but its the best-
PAUL How is it an ace in the hole?
JON No, well-
PAUL I mean, its a peculiar thing.
JON Ill explain, Paul. Its an ace in the hole, mate, because what his strategic goal for this election is to avoid what happened to National in 2002, and he has to use the best weapons he has for those left-leaning voters to decide between his party or the Green Party. Now, for- so this election very much is about making- for him, keeping Labour viable for the 2014 election. That is the bog standard achievement he has to pull off.
PAUL But I wonder why he thinks that asset sales are going to do that, because the polling so far indicates that while people are opposed to asset sales up to 49% of certain assets, it doesnt hurt the Nats whatsoever.
DON And as he said this morning, you know, we want investment into this and this and this and that. That means the country needs more capital. If you can raise more capital by more public-private partnerships, and that is going to be the way of the future - that is going to be the way of the future. Theres going to be far more public money, but from private people coming into public assets in these joint ownership things. And the sell-down of those big companies down to 49% - that is minor in terms of asset sales. It is- but it does free up capital for the very things you want to do.
PAUL I was discussing yesterday with our producer, do you know, I dont remember an election in New Zealand thats ever been so presidential. One man against another - mano a mano.
MIKE Well, its-
PAUL Its who you like.
MIKE Yeah, yeah, but I would make a point here that I think Labours been right to hammer away at this asset sales. Ive said before I dont know anybody who supports asset sales. Don tells me he does. The way I see it - its what John-
DON What do you fringe it on, Michael?
LAUGHTER
MIKE What John Key is trying to do is sell me something I already own. Now, that really only has to pop into a few heads as they go into the polling booth and Labour will do better-
PAUL No, but people dont look at that. They look at five to seven billion. Thats what-
MIKE Well, do they?
PAUL Well, they must be.
DON And where it can be spent and were short of money-
JON Yeah, but if youve got a high undecided - 10, 15 and as Mike said earlier, that possibly even more than that - it is those sorts of policies that are the deciders on the day.
PAUL Yeah.
DON Well, thats the worry of the Cuppagate issue, isnt it? Is that a deciding issue when, in fact, we should all be judging these leaders on over a three-year period, what has been achieved. And, you know, Phil, nice guy, but in three years, he hasnt moved that party very much.
PAUL The trouble is, you know, Mr Goff may be really a prisoner of his own professionalism, in a way, of his own longevity, his own success over a long period of time. Hes not new.
JON But hes actually- In many respects, hes had a very solid- apart from the Christchurch incident - hes actually had quite a solid campaign, hasnt he? And the polls have been interesting in showing that even as the Labour brand is struggling, his stocks are coming off because as people have seen more, theyve seen the conviction that he actually does have about the policies, you know, he believes in. So it is a dynamic.
DON Phils had a lot of convictions as to what he believes in. (laughs)
JON Yeah, yeah.
PAUL Exactly. Lets move on to seats. On election night, what seats are you going to be looking at? Do you still look at seats?
MIKE Oh, yeah, yeah, well, like Don did, most of my political life is under FPP, so Im still interested in what happens in the seats. Ill be looking at Epsom, obviously. Ill also be looking at seats like West Coast-Tasman where I think it would be very sad if Damien OConnor finally went out of Parliament. Ill be looking at Waimakariri. Quite a lot of those voters are no longer in that seat. Ill be looking at New Plymouth to see if Andrew Little can pull it off.
In response to WINSTON PETERS INTERVIEW
PAUL So, were back with our panellists Mike Williams, Jon Johansson and Sir Don McKinnon. What do you make of that? One thing about that - your mind dont wander.
MIKE Your mind doesnt wander, no. Im going to take the plunge and say I think you may well see Winston back in Parliament on Sunday, and Ill say that for two reasons. One, he got 4.1% of the vote in the last election in the worst possible political atmosphere. Number two, every time a retired person opens up their wallet, theres a Super Gold card, and that means a lot if youre travelling around Auckland, so-
PAUL That was another policy- That was another policy not discussed, actually, that 10% power reductions - electric power reductions for Gold Card holders. That might have an appeal.
DON All the political journalists are thrilled that Winstons come back because theyll be following him everywhere. Hes the Pied Piper of politics. Hell be dropping out little phrases all next week. Theyll be concentrating on him because they get mesmerised by him, so theyve got to say to themselves, well, add that up.
PAUL Theyve got another Dick Nixon to kick around, I suppose. What do you think? Will they make it?
JON I think, you know, Winston still needs a lot of exposure this week because the run is left because of the limits, you know, on Winstons exposure before, but for that large pool of undecided, they are seriously weighing up. And, you know, on a different level, you know, the great drama that has been Winstons career was ending in tragedy in 2008. And whatever turns out last Saturday, his final act has shown a great deal of élan, charm and quality.
PAUL Right, the other parties? This is very quick. Im into the last minute. The Greens?
MIKE The Greens I dont think will score as much as theyre polling.
PAUL United Future?
MIKE Gone.
DON I would say the Greens are now splitting into old Green and new Green.
PAUL Isnt that interesting?
MIKE Yeah, but lets look at United Future. One thing National has managed to do is trash the local economy in Wellington. I would be very surprised to see National or Peter Dunne do well in Wellington.
PAUL 39,000 civil servants down to 36,000.
JON ACT in Oakley and MMP to be retained.
PAUL Beg your pardon?
JON ACT will end up in Oakley. I mean, its madness.
PAUL Okay.
LAUGHTER
MIKE Oakleys no longer there.
JON Oh, is it no longer there? Well, neither is ACT.
PAUL No, its university now.
DON The same thing, isnt it?
LAUGHTER
MIKE The polytech.
PAUL Yeah, whatever it is. Mana. Mana. One of your blokes-
JON Well, its all madness. Thats all Im saying.
PAUL What have we got? Mana?
MIKE Id watch that one on the night. I think its going to be very close.
PAUL And the Maori Party?
JON Three seats.
DON Pita and Tariana - theyve held their end up.
PAUL Very good. We shall continue this discussion on our web-only panel.
