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Bill English - Source: NZPA / Ross Setford
We've got a great, grunty line-up on the programme this weekend. Guyon Espiner will talk to Finance Minister Bill English, who has probably the most thankless job in New Zealand right now. Especially, given the Treasury's latest financial statements.
The gross national debt, which was $30 billion in the Pre-Election Update shortly before the election, is now at $45 billion. That's a 50% increase in just a few months. The country's tax revenue and receipts were approximately $1.8 billion lower than forecast in the PREFU.
The figures tell us that the government just ain't bringing in the kind of money it used to. There may still be some hope that we've reached the bottom of the recession. The G20's communiqué pushed the markets up and gave some much needed confidence to business - the C word that's so crucial at the moment.
But if things don't turn around quickly - and you've got to suspect that a quick improvement is unlikely - then something's gotta give.
English has the heinous choice: cut government services, borrow more or cancel the planned tax cuts. At various times National has promised to do none of those things. But their escape route is narrowing.
English will be digging for all he's worth, but his Budget could be as black as they come.
Business and Economic Research (BERL) economist Dr Ganesh Nana published a strongly worded report this week, taking aim at English. He said "far-sighted leadership" was needed, not "slavish adherence to a now wholly discredited textbook". Remember, English was Treasurer the last time New Zealand was in a recession. Is he the unluckiest New Zealand politician?
Dr Nana writes, "Growing signs of a cavalier 'across-the-board' Razor Gang approach to culling government spending leave one with a sense of déjà vu. The risk that the current Government will repeat the mistakes of the early-1990s would not only add to the gloom, but also further exacerbate the blow-out in the fiscal deficit."
As Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, along with China, have pushed for more demand-side spending, National has sided with the Europeans, who spent the week insisting that they would't spend another penny on fiscal stimulus.
With seven weeks to go until the Budget, we'll watch with interest which post English finally nails his colours to.
Following English will be former Prime Minister and new UNDP head Helen Clark. She'll be talking to Paul Holmes with her husband, medical sociologist Peter Davis.
Somewhere in her private moments she must be relieved she's not having to lead the country through this global mess. Paul has interviewed Clark as often as anybody and it'll be a revealing chat. I'll be interested to see what she thinks about the G20's trillion dollar rescue package.
We've got a hugely impressive panel.
Former Prime Minister and WTO boss Mike Moore and financial and
foreign affairs columnist Fran O'Sullivan join our regular pundit,
Therese Arseneau. They'll discuss the English interview and the
recession, and then look at the impact Helen Clark has had on New
Zealand after 30 years in politics. Clark might not want to talk
about her legacy. But the panel will.
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