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Rugby World Cup 2011 - Source: Photosport -
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It's less than a month now until the greatest political distraction the country's seen since, well, who knows when.
That's right, the Rugby World Cup kicks off on September 9 and it's going to suck huge amounts of oxygen out of the political debate in the three months prior to polling day.
And you know who's most delighted about that, don't you? National. In terms of democracy and an informed public, it's terrible.
From a political viewpoint, however, it's the gift to the governing party that will give and give, day after day after day until almost the end of October.
Already, government ministers are kicking for touch, refusing interviews and clamming up on anything that might spark public debate.
For them, the odd press release, set piece community visits and a five minute stand-up as they walk the corridors of parliament amount to communicating with the public.
As I say, bad for democracy, but for them, good politics. I'm sad to say it's what any party would do these days.
For the other parties, even National's coalition partners, it's a strategic nightmare. It takes time - and numerous media mentions - for people to absorb policy.
Just look at Labour's capital gains tax. I was speaking to someone recently furious at the idea because of the cost it would impose on his family home - not realising that the family home is exempt in Labour's plan.
And if you think it's tough for Labour, imagine being one of the minor parties, trying, say, to discuss its tax policy when the country's in the midst of a debate about the best All Blacks wing pairing..
What many forget is that news is finite - there are only so many pages in a newspaper and minutes in a news hour.
From September 9 to October 23, much of that finite space will be dominated by rugby games, rugby players and rugby tourists, squeezing politics to the margins.
From a politics perspective, voters will have their eye off the ball, because they will all have their eye on the ball, so to speak.
When you think back a year or more, to the debate over whether National would choose to go early or wait and hold the election after the RWC, it seems ludicrous to think anyone advocated a 'go early' policy.
If Labour had been able to get on a roll and was catching rapidly, perhaps this six week political desert would have been a political gamble; as it stands, that desert is more like a beach for National MPs. They're looking forward to putting their feet up.
You could feel exactly that mood at the National Party conference this past weekend. The National Party has never been full of young firebrands - indeed, the average age remains well north of "young" and the only brands on display were Gucci and Louis Vuitton.
But the 600 or so members gathered in the Wellington Town Hall were& comfortable. Even complacent.
On stage, leading ministers could afford to make jokes at each other's expense. Steven Joyce sounded somewhat apologetic in his speech when he criticised Labour's infrastructure policies, pausing to note, almost to himself, that "we've hardly mentioned our opponents here today".
That's because they don't have to. They're riding high and they're confident.
And what's wrong with that? Only that National is talking about major reforms in its second term, many of which are being offered up for validation at the election.
Many voters are at risk of ticking the ballot with one eye on the rugby, only to get a hell of a shock in the next three years, should National win in November.
From the end of the state house for life and welfare restrictions, through ACC and labour reform, to state asset sales, National, should it win, is promising a more robust and active second term.
So when you're buying in the beer, getting comfy in your
armchair and settling in for six weeks of rugby games, don't forget
there's another game in town. And its ramifications will last well
into the cricket season& and many seasons after that.
