You've got to hand it to Winston Peters.
He doesn't do things by halves. And that includes getting into trouble. He now has four agencies of state on his tail. The police, the Serious Fraud Office and the Privileges Committee are investigating New Zealand First's finances and the Electoral Commission is demanding its amended accounts by the end of the month.
And when Winston Peters is in trouble that invariably means trouble for others, too.
He won't be the only one nervously awaiting the testimony of ex-pat billionaire Owen Glenn to the Privileges Committee this afternoon.
Labour will be wondering how much of the flak flies its way. If Glenn is wounded he could be a dangerous beast. Remember, he gave $500,000 to Labour plus a $100,000 interest free loan, only to find that to back up their ally Winston Peters, Labour interests have been privately discrediting Owen Glenn, painting him as befuddled, confused and unreliable.
Not that that has stopped Labour taking his money, or indeed asking him for more.
The impact hasn't been confined to Labour though and, in fact, it isn't going too far to say that Winston's woes over the past month or so have changed the political landscape entirely.
Firstly ACT leader Rodney Hide is back, just as voters were preparing to do to him what he did to his partner in the closing moments of Dancing with the Stars. Hide has gone after Peters in a way that at first John Key wouldn't (he was initially too afraid to upset New Zealand First) and then couldn't (he doesn't have the killer instinct).
In fact, Hide has reminded us of his value in parliament and why he should never have given up his perk busting role. The slimmer, smiling Rodney Hide was always just too much of a transition to take - a little like Peters suddenly giving straight answers, politely thanking his inquisitor and shuffling quietly back to his office to ensure there had been absolute transparency in his party accounts.
To give Key some credit, he too has altered the political landscape with his eventual (but still bold) call to rule out Peters as a coalition partner. That decision has enormous ramifications, some of them still uncertain. It certainly strips Peters of his kingmaker title and it may yet leave National without the numbers to form a government. Or it could have the opposite effect and convince an electorate grumpy with New Zealand First, and perhaps tired of MMP, to give National an absolute majority.
Recent poll results indicate that's unlikely, with the trend suggesting the gap between National and Labour narrowing. Neither major party is likely to have enough votes to form a government with their natural coalition partners - not Labour with the Progressives and the Greens, nor National with ACT and United Future.
And so we have another party whose fortunes have altered significantly with the Peters funding debacle, as the kingmaker role passes to the Maori Party, whose six or seven seats may see them anoint the next prime minister.
National and Labour know this and have both been courting parliament's newest party. Clark will be ruing her comment last election that the Maori Party were the "last cab off the rank" for coalition talks.
This time they may be traveling in the BMW Ministerial limos.
About Guyon
Guyon Espiner is TVNZ's political editor. He has covered politics
from the press gallery in parliament since 1998 and took over as
political editor from Mark Sainsbury in January 2006 ...
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Add a Comment:
Post new commentGeoff Keey said on 2009-08-14 @ 01:47 NZDT: Report abusive post
Guyon, I was surprised to see you citing the Government's climate change cost estimates so uncritically given the extent to which they have been discredited.
stephen6565 said on 2009-08-13 @ 22:15 NZDT: Report abusive post
Another very poor article. You are part of the fourth estate and should be asking the hard questions of the govt. Making the govt accountable is not just the oppositions job. This whole article is just rubbish 'feelings' centred around your personal political views. Stick to policy and 'news' items.
geekypolitics said on 2009-08-11 @ 19:34 NZDT: Report abusive post
Mr. Espiner has some good advice for Labour especially on the environment, but the idea that Goff should "cuddle" up to Key is appalling. It is always difficult for the opposition to take a stance on matters that are of an international nature, as the reputation of the country as a united entity is at stake. Democrats in the U.S. had the same problem with regards to the Iraq War. I'd hate to see Labour make the same mistake in the name of "solidarity behind the troops."
Andrew Nichols said on 2009-08-11 @ 14:17 NZDT: Report abusive post
"Polls in Britain showed, counter-intuitively, that support for their troop deployment increased even as casualties mounted. " You're flat wrong! Current polling in the UKs major dailies actually shows majority and growing option to Britains involvement in Obams purposeless war. Not that that's ever bothered the govt there, who in time honoured fashion enjoy perpetuating "Britains post WW2 role as the Greeks to the US Empire" (Harold McMillan 1943)
Kereama said on 2009-08-11 @ 13:39 NZDT: Report abusive post
Of course Labour need to find their direction! They lost the election and they lost touch with grassroots NZ - National did too once, and it took them years to get back on track - but they did. The point is, the "road to nowhere" isn't permanent (unless you're Winston Peters... let's hope anyway). While it may be the opposition's role to critique the Government, the media has an obligation to do so also. Let the opposition "find" themselves and focus instead on the ones that count.