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Source: ONE News -
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The tough budget and a volatile political environment has failed to dent National's sky high poll ratings.
The latest ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll figures show that National could still govern alone with more than 50% support.
National has only dropped slightly in the polls after cutting KiwiSaver and Working for Families in the 2011 Budget , but at 52% it is still ahead of Labour by 18 points, who is stuck on 34%. The Greens remain steady on 6%.
And new Act leader Don Brash's take over of the party has failed to get the ratings lift he was hoping for.
There was a little movement with the Act Party to 2.5%, while New Zealand First is crushed back to 1.6%.
Neither the Maori Party nor the break away Mana Party are proving popular on the party vote.
ONE News political editor Guyon Espiner said the poll is effectively, "a thumbs-up" for National's Budget.
With these numbers National would get 65 seats in Parliament; they could probably add in four Maori party seats, three from Act and one from United Future, he said.
Espiner add that with just 42 seats, even with seven Green MPs and one from the Mana Party, Labour would be well short of forming a government.
"National has dropped just two points - and none of that went to
Labour, so despite the changes to popular schemes like Kiwi Saver
and Working for Families, they have not been punished by voters,"
he said.
Results also show the preferred Prime Minister stakes are a one
horse race; John Key scores 53%, while Phil Goff is on 8% - 45
points behind.
The budget may have been a bumpy ride but voters clearly still
believe the government is still on track, with improved perceptions
about the economy.
Back in April, just 38% of voters thought the economy would
get better over the next year and 45% thought it would get worse,
now that situation has completely turned around with a big rebound
in economic confidence.
"Optimism about the economy has gone up ten points and pessimism has fallen 12 points so despite doubts about the Budget forecasts for strong growth, voters do seem more confident about the economy," said Espiner.
The poll of 1018 eligible voters was taken between May 21 and May 25.
Party support - party vote
National 52% (Down 2 from April poll)
Labour 34% (steady)
Green Party 6% (steady)
ACT NZ 2.5% (up 1.4%)
NZ First 1.6% (down 1.1%)
Maori Party 1.4% (steady)
Mana Party 0.9% (N/A)
Parliamentary seats
National 65
Labour 42
Green Party 7
Maori Party 4*
ACT 3*
United Future 1*
Mana Party 1*
* Assuming electorate seats are held
Preferred Prime Minister
Key 53% (Down 2%)
Goff 8% (Down 3%)
Economic outlook
Optimism 48% (up 10%)
Pessimism 33% (down 12%)
The ONE News Colmar Brunton poll has a margin of error of (+ or -) 3.1%.
