Hone Harawira could bring a Mana Party pal into Parliament, the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll shows.
But John Key's National would also rule alone, as support slips for his major rivals.
Labour and the Greens have been presenting themselves as an alternative government.
But the latest figures show the tune has changed since the last ONE News Colmar Brunton poll and Labour's gains were only temporary.
National could govern alone and would not need a coalition deal, the poll results show.
National has jumped six points and is sitting pretty on 49 percent.
Labour has dropped three points, now at 33 percent.
The Greens have lost a big chunk of support, now in single digits on nine percent, while New Zealand First picked up a point to be on four percent.
Colin Craig's Conservative Party on two percent, the Maori Party and United Future, both at one percent, are all holding steady, but not getting much traction.
And Mana is doing well, so well in fact that the party's leader and sole MP, Hone Harawira, will be able to bring a friend with him to Parliament.
Under the the poll numbers, National could govern alone. So a seat each from ACT and United Future is a bonus and it would not need the three seats from the Maori Party.
Labour and the Greens together would only have 53.
And even with Harawira and his number two, Annette Sykes, it wouldn't be enough. That is assuming all electorate seats are held.
National has announced some big policies in the past few weeks.
Finance Minister Bill English delivered his budget and he has finally got the partial sale of Mighty River Power over the line.
"I now declare Mighty River power floated," he said, marking the float of the state owned company on the sharemarket.
When it comes to preferred prime minister, John Key gained three points, now sitting at 42 percent.
Labour leader David Shearer lost three and is stuck at 12 percent. He has been stuck on 15 percent for the last three polls.
National has been distracted by the Aaron Gilmore saga but his behaviour does not seem to have damaged his former party.
Gilmore resigned from Parliament after a scandal over his behaviour at a Hanmer Springs restaurant.