It's an unlikely concept to say the least. Maori Party firebrand Hone Harawira giving the National Party comfort about its chances of forming the next government.
But that's exactly what the Te Tai Tokerau MP, from New Zealand's pre-eminent protesting dynasty did with his appearance on TV ONE's Agenda programme on Sunday.
Anyone with lingering doubts about whether the Maori Party could work with National after the election would have to shelve them after seeing Harawira's response to that question.
It was "no more difficult than working with Labour," he replied.
"People have this big fear of National and Maori in terms of 'oh
they'd get rid of the Maori seats wouldn't they?' My response
constantly is always: The greatest land theft of my generation has
actually been the Foreshore and Seabed and that wasn't stolen by
National that was stolen by Labour."
VIDEO: Watch the Agenda episode
Now, Harawira can be loose with language, but don't forget that along with former Alliance President Matt McCarten, he is the Maori Party's strategist this election and the question of post-election deals is the biggest strategic challenge facing the party this campaign.
Maori Party MPs know that, like New Zealand First in previous campaigns, they are going to be dogged with the question: Who are you going to go with?
All the other parties will effectively be spoken for. Act and the Progressives will step in behind National and Labour respectively. New Zealand First doesn't have an option, having been ruled out by National. United Future's position is that it would negotiate first with Parliament's largest party and the Greens have promised to declare their preference before the election, based on policy compatibility.
So, the Maori Party is likely to be the only party keeping voters, and other political leaders, guessing about their coalition intentions. That will ensure them maximum discomfort during the campaign, but maximum leverage after it.
There is another coalition conundrum for Parliament's newest party. While the easiest option would be a deal with Helen Clark, because overwhelmingly Maori voters give their party vote to Labour, they may gain more from a deal with John Key.
In a Labour-led government the Maori Party is likely to be just one of three or four support parties (along with the Progressives, the Greens and perhaps New Zealand First) which would dilute its influence. It would also be jostling with Labour's own Maori caucus, potentially after a bruising campaign battle for the Maori seats.
In a deal with National, the Maori Party may be able to strike a more influential and independent role. The Maori Party MPs have watched the different forms that coalitions have taken over the last three elections , with a maturing of MMP.
Those options range from Jim Anderton's Progressive Party, which is fully in Cabinet and barely distinguishable from Labour, to United Future and New Zealand First, who have Ministerial positions outside government, right through to the Greens who have spokesman roles in a government which they don't even support on confidence and money supply.
In fact the Maori Party has already drawn up these options and marked out their preferences, not that they're about to divulge them now.
Like their position on which of the major parties to support,
that will stay under wraps until after the election.
About Guyon
Guyon Espiner is TVNZ's political editor. He has covered politics
from the press gallery in parliament since 1998 and took over as
political editor from Mark Sainsbury in January 2006 ...
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Add a Comment:
Post new commentGeoff Keey said on 2009-08-14 @ 01:47 NZDT: Report abusive post
Guyon, I was surprised to see you citing the Government's climate change cost estimates so uncritically given the extent to which they have been discredited.
stephen6565 said on 2009-08-13 @ 22:15 NZDT: Report abusive post
Another very poor article. You are part of the fourth estate and should be asking the hard questions of the govt. Making the govt accountable is not just the oppositions job. This whole article is just rubbish 'feelings' centred around your personal political views. Stick to policy and 'news' items.
geekypolitics said on 2009-08-11 @ 19:34 NZDT: Report abusive post
Mr. Espiner has some good advice for Labour especially on the environment, but the idea that Goff should "cuddle" up to Key is appalling. It is always difficult for the opposition to take a stance on matters that are of an international nature, as the reputation of the country as a united entity is at stake. Democrats in the U.S. had the same problem with regards to the Iraq War. I'd hate to see Labour make the same mistake in the name of "solidarity behind the troops."
Andrew Nichols said on 2009-08-11 @ 14:17 NZDT: Report abusive post
"Polls in Britain showed, counter-intuitively, that support for their troop deployment increased even as casualties mounted. " You're flat wrong! Current polling in the UKs major dailies actually shows majority and growing option to Britains involvement in Obams purposeless war. Not that that's ever bothered the govt there, who in time honoured fashion enjoy perpetuating "Britains post WW2 role as the Greeks to the US Empire" (Harold McMillan 1943)
Kereama said on 2009-08-11 @ 13:39 NZDT: Report abusive post
Of course Labour need to find their direction! They lost the election and they lost touch with grassroots NZ - National did too once, and it took them years to get back on track - but they did. The point is, the "road to nowhere" isn't permanent (unless you're Winston Peters... let's hope anyway). While it may be the opposition's role to critique the Government, the media has an obligation to do so also. Let the opposition "find" themselves and focus instead on the ones that count.