-
Related
So Labour is to set forth on a two week bus tour to campaign against a rise in GST. We were joking at TVNZ that any seriously underperforming journalists will be sent on special assignment to cover the trip in its entirety.
Good on Labour for trying, I guess. But I wonder if this is a bit like the road trips you do in your teens having read Jack Kerouac for the first time. You know, the ones where it's all about the journey and the destination doesn't matter.
Sure, along the way Labour MPs will get to tell people how evil the government is for increasing the price of bread, milk and school shoes - politicians are always careful not to mention beer and cigarettes - but where will this ultimately end up for Labour?
We know people don't want GST to go up and the ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll confirmed that in recent days, showing 69% of people think it's a bad idea. Labour may be buoyed by those results. But my reading of the public reaction to the proposed tax switch is that it actually spells good news for National.
The poll reveals that 63% of people don't think they will be better off after the personal tax cuts are delivered to compensate for GST going up in the May Budget. Given that result, the 54% party vote support for National in the poll - 20 points clear of Labour - is remarkable. It puts the government in the enviable position of only having to meet the low expectations that voters have for its second Budget. National should back itself to exceed those expectations, especially if Labour has spent two weeks on a nationwide bus tour telling people how bad things are going to be.
But the real problem with Labour's GST bus tour is that it risks simply going around in circles because Labour might be railing against GST going up but it is not promising to put it back to 12.5% if elected in 2011.
That means the conversations with the "real New Zealanders" politicians like to talk about might go something like this:
Mr Real Person: "Damn government is putting GST up. That means my kids' school shoes, the milk for my porridge and the butter for my bread will go up approximately 2.2% - that's more than the Consumer Price Index rose by last year." Mr P Goff: "That's right and those Tories don't care about you or Mrs Real Person or your real kids." Mrs Person: "So you'll cut the GST rate back to 12.5% again if you win the election right Mr Goff?" Mr P Goff: "Ah no, we're not promising that. What we are saying is that we don't want GST to go up."
It'll be a long couple of weeks for Labour MPs on the GST bus tour and they'll have time to think exactly where all this is heading.
At some stage Goff and his finance spokesman David Cunliffe are going to have to come up with an alternative plan to run the country and balance the books. Re-instating GST to 12.5% and once again making contributions to the Super Fund could cost $4 billion alone, let alone bringing back ACC entitlements, adult night classes and fully funded KiwiSaver. Labour has a few brutal choices here: Flag those things away as lost causes, borrow more or put up taxes.
Promising tax rises as an incoming government might have worked for Helen Clark in 1999 after a decade of cuts to public services but I don't think Labour would like to be in that position in the 2011 campaign.
I'm not saying Labour should stay silent - especially if they feel the government is making things tougher on the people who can least afford it.
But perhaps the bus tour would be better after the May Budget - when it's clear exactly who the winners and losers are. Then Labour MPs would have a better idea of exactly where the bus is going.
Expenses
And just a quick note on the expenses story developing today - and I write more in sorrow than in anger.
Is it unbelievable that Phil Heatley, a Minister on nearly a quarter of a million dollars a year, would dip in to his wallet and use a publicly funded Ministerial credit card to pay for a family outing to the movies, for some luggage and for a ferry to take his family on a South Island road trip? Yes it is. It is staggeringly arrogant and disgracefully disrespectful to the taxpayer.
Is it the last story we'll be doing on this type of behaviour from Ministers and MPs? Sadly, no. And the tears? Take a look at the story that featured on ONE News on Tuesday night. Sorry Phil, save the tears for people who work on the minimum wage for 40 hours a week and pay the taxes which fund your expenses.
Read more of Guyon Espiner's blogs.
