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National's affair with the public is looking less like a honeymoon and more like a settled marriage right now (although in politics divorce is always inevitable and there are no pre-nuptial agreements).
Meanwhile Labour's brief fling, on the rebound from a nine year relationship, has crashed and burned.
Late last year hopes were high within Labour. Its transition from Helen Clark to Phil Goff was silky smooth and its old hands then set about rattling the new government, especially in the House, where National's Gerry Brownlee struggled to manage legislation and procedure.
When Phil Goff would stop to talk to media on the way to Labour's Tuesday caucus meetings you could see, clutched under his arm, a set of notes prepared for his colleagues: little headings under which he had handwritten some of the fine things journalists were saying about the new Opposition.
Now it seems his task is reminding the public who he is actually is and what his job is. The first opinion polls of the year have brought with them the ego-shattering truth that few people know or care about the Labour leadership .
When asked to name the Labour leader in the latest ONE News/Colmar Brunton poll a staggering 40% could not do so and double that number had no clue the deputy was Annette King. It's a sobering reminder how irrelevant voters can deem the Opposition to be, especially an Opposition biffed out of office after nine years and facing a new government, with new ideas and a relatively new face at the helm.
Labour will brush off the bad polls but it has deeper, longer term troubles.
After nearly 13 years National has finally wised up to the MMP electoral system as John Key reaches out across the political divide. Sure, Act and UnitedFuture were always going to be on board, but the Maori Party was a surprise to some.
Now, Key is courting the Greens as the two parties mull the prospect of a lower level co-operation agreement. That could involve the Greens supporting some House procedural motions and offering other sideline support in return for access to government officials in areas of interest, such as energy efficiency or public transport.
Ok, that might be small beer right now, but it is a start - and a start which should have Labour worried. Where once they commanded allies across the political spectrum, now they are looking increasingly isolated.
Things may well get tough for National this winter as the recession bites, but at least they have relevance, profile and allies.
Right now Labour has none of these things. Nor does Phil Goff have any competition in his own ranks for the job that so few people know he has: leader of the Opposition.
Who would want that job this side of the election?
What do you think about what Guyon is discussing? Share your views on the messageboard below.
Add a Comment:
Post new commentGeoff Keey said on 2009-08-14 @ 01:47 NZDT: Report abusive post
Guyon, I was surprised to see you citing the Government's climate change cost estimates so uncritically given the extent to which they have been discredited.
stephen6565 said on 2009-08-13 @ 22:15 NZDT: Report abusive post
Another very poor article. You are part of the fourth estate and should be asking the hard questions of the govt. Making the govt accountable is not just the oppositions job. This whole article is just rubbish 'feelings' centred around your personal political views. Stick to policy and 'news' items.
geekypolitics said on 2009-08-11 @ 19:34 NZDT: Report abusive post
Mr. Espiner has some good advice for Labour especially on the environment, but the idea that Goff should "cuddle" up to Key is appalling. It is always difficult for the opposition to take a stance on matters that are of an international nature, as the reputation of the country as a united entity is at stake. Democrats in the U.S. had the same problem with regards to the Iraq War. I'd hate to see Labour make the same mistake in the name of "solidarity behind the troops."
Andrew Nichols said on 2009-08-11 @ 14:17 NZDT: Report abusive post
"Polls in Britain showed, counter-intuitively, that support for their troop deployment increased even as casualties mounted. " You're flat wrong! Current polling in the UKs major dailies actually shows majority and growing option to Britains involvement in Obams purposeless war. Not that that's ever bothered the govt there, who in time honoured fashion enjoy perpetuating "Britains post WW2 role as the Greeks to the US Empire" (Harold McMillan 1943)
Kereama said on 2009-08-11 @ 13:39 NZDT: Report abusive post
Of course Labour need to find their direction! They lost the election and they lost touch with grassroots NZ - National did too once, and it took them years to get back on track - but they did. The point is, the "road to nowhere" isn't permanent (unless you're Winston Peters... let's hope anyway). While it may be the opposition's role to critique the Government, the media has an obligation to do so also. Let the opposition "find" themselves and focus instead on the ones that count.