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Speculation is a risky game, especially when it comes to the fate of Winston Peters - but here's the outcome I think Helen Clark will be aiming for today.
Firstly, she has no option: Peters must be stood down as a Minister. He cannot continue to be New Zealand's representative abroad, while under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office. He can no longer hold a Ministerial warrant as Racing Minister, while elements of the fraud investigation relate to donations from the Vela family, one of the big names in the racing fraternity.
Helen Clark will have spent last night sending signals to the Peters' camp that his position is no longer tenable. That will continue this morning with the aim of giving Peters the space to make the announcement himself.
Peters could argue he is standing aside - despite believing the fraud investigation is "ridiculous in the extreme - to fight to clear his name. Without the Foreign Affairs role he would be free to fight for the Tauranga seat and free for one last Herculean effort to hoist his party over the five percent threshold needed to get MPs into Parliament.
He would also be free to rage against two of his greatest enemies: the Serious Fraud Office and the National party, which no longer wants him.
The prospects of a return to Parliament for Peters though are as low as they have ever been. Not only is he rejected by National but it seems likely that while post-election negotiations are going on the Serious Fraud Office will still be investigating.
Who is going to want to put a government together with New Zealand First when the leader is still under such a dark cloud?
Voters will likely factor that in when deciding whether to give their precious vote to Winston Peters.
Peters though does have a record of coming back from the impossible. He might set another record today - the only minister in New Zealand political history to be sacked three times.
About Guyon
Guyon Espiner is TVNZs political editor. He has covered politics
from the press gallery in parliament since 1998 and took over as
political editor from Mark Sainsbury in January 2006 ...
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Post new commentGeoff Keey said on 2009-08-14 @ 01:47 NZDT: Report abusive post
Guyon, I was surprised to see you citing the Government's climate change cost estimates so uncritically given the extent to which they have been discredited.
stephen6565 said on 2009-08-13 @ 22:15 NZDT: Report abusive post
Another very poor article. You are part of the fourth estate and should be asking the hard questions of the govt. Making the govt accountable is not just the oppositions job. This whole article is just rubbish 'feelings' centred around your personal political views. Stick to policy and 'news' items.
geekypolitics said on 2009-08-11 @ 19:34 NZDT: Report abusive post
Mr. Espiner has some good advice for Labour especially on the environment, but the idea that Goff should "cuddle" up to Key is appalling. It is always difficult for the opposition to take a stance on matters that are of an international nature, as the reputation of the country as a united entity is at stake. Democrats in the U.S. had the same problem with regards to the Iraq War. I'd hate to see Labour make the same mistake in the name of "solidarity behind the troops."
Andrew Nichols said on 2009-08-11 @ 14:17 NZDT: Report abusive post
"Polls in Britain showed, counter-intuitively, that support for their troop deployment increased even as casualties mounted. " You're flat wrong! Current polling in the UKs major dailies actually shows majority and growing option to Britains involvement in Obams purposeless war. Not that that's ever bothered the govt there, who in time honoured fashion enjoy perpetuating "Britains post WW2 role as the Greeks to the US Empire" (Harold McMillan 1943)
Kereama said on 2009-08-11 @ 13:39 NZDT: Report abusive post
Of course Labour need to find their direction! They lost the election and they lost touch with grassroots NZ - National did too once, and it took them years to get back on track - but they did. The point is, the "road to nowhere" isn't permanent (unless you're Winston Peters... let's hope anyway). While it may be the opposition's role to critique the Government, the media has an obligation to do so also. Let the opposition "find" themselves and focus instead on the ones that count.