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John Key has to consider the impact the likes of Hone Harawira, Don Brash and Winston Peters will have on the election. - Source: ONE News -
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If I were John Key I would be seriously thinking about a snap election.
There are always two factors in determining whether to go early: the strategic advantage and the justification.
Key has both.
Effectively there are two new parties starting this weekend - Hone Harawira's far-left Maori nationalist party and an extreme right wing party, headed by Don Brash, most likely the new-look Act Party.
Why would National give two hostile forces six months to gear up for an election?
And they are certainly both hostile forces. In fact Brash's Act Party will do more damage to National than Harawira's party will.
Virtually all the support Act gets will come from National, except some of the "one law for all" vote on race issues, which could come at the expense of New Zealand First.
Brash could easily get five percent or more, reducing National's vote and putting himself in a powerful position in any post-election negotiations.
That is the other damaging aspect of this for National. Brash is a polarising figure and the prospect of him having an influential Cabinet position could frighten the horses among soft National voters in the centre and give Labour some good fodder for raising alarm bells about a right wing revolution.
Scrambling
Of course going early would also leave Labour and New Zealand First scrambling and ill-prepared.
So, what about the justification?
Well, it's a mirror image of what Helen Clark faced before the 2002 election. Labour's coalition partner, the Alliance, was disintegrating, and she used the excuse to call a snap election. Sure, she didn't win a majority but at about 40% she scored double what the floundering Bill English could manage for National.
Key has the same excuse. In fact both his coalition partners - the Maori Party and Act - have splintered. If Hide does resign from Act his Ministerial portfolios become problematic.
Key can easily call for a fresh mandate for his government.
He doesn't even need to move the Budget. English could deliver it on May 19 and we could go to the polls in late June or early July, well ahead of the Rugby World Cup.
Yes I know Key said in February that the election would be on November 26. But who knew that by April, we would have had a devastating earthquake and that both coalition partners would have split in two?
Key has a Royal Wedding to think about now - but divorce with coalition partners looms at home.
The prospects of an early election must surely have at least crossed his mind.
Do you agree with Guyon? Should Key bring the election forward?
Add a Comment:
Post new commentcarljung said on 2011-05-01 @ 18:27 NZDT: Report abusive post
I am getting so tired of this country and it's patronizing government and media. Get a real job, you contribute nothing but perpetuate the misery and poverty that National and the US are setting up! What happened to journalism!!!
carljung said on 2011-05-01 @ 18:26 NZDT: Report abusive post
Who the hell is Guyon and why are you wasting our time with his opinions! I am getting so tired of this country and it's patronizing government and media. Get a real job, you contribute nothing but perpetuate the misery and poverty that National and the US are setting up! What happened to journalism!!!
Worked out said on 2011-04-29 @ 20:12 NZDT: Report abusive post
Why are you people having a go a Guyon. We all know the media did a great job getting rid of Brash once before. The media rule this country so relax. If they dont like him he will fail. Sit back and let the character assassination begin. Brash and ACT are such big targets that they might leave poor old Winnie alone this time!
zing said on 2011-04-29 @ 05:43 NZDT: Report abusive post
Guyon is a journalist. It's not for him to suggest anything, only to report the political news. Too many journalists today want to become the news. There's no way Key should call a snap election. National and Act will have the lion's share of the vote this year and dreamer greens, bludger labour and handout horis will have less voters. Unless we have strong government NZ is headed for third world status. We are almost there thanks to Labour having created a bludger mentality in NZ.
maradona said on 2011-04-28 @ 22:37 NZDT: Report abusive post
Thanks for your opinion Guyon but a bit of informed research wouldn't go astray. Apparently the most stable governments using MMP electoral systems are those which have fixed election dates and don't allow for the government of the day to call a snap election. The purpose of the government is to run the country not try to stay in power and so call a snap election when it suits it. NZ still has a lot of growing up to do.