If I were John Key I would be seriously thinking about a snap election.
There are always two factors in determining whether to go early: the strategic advantage and the justification.
Key has both.
Effectively there are two new parties starting this weekend - Hone Harawira's far-left Maori nationalist party and an extreme right wing party, headed by Don Brash, most likely the new-look Act Party.
Why would National give two hostile forces six months to gear up for an election?
And they are certainly both hostile forces. In fact Brash's Act Party will do more damage to National than Harawira's party will.
Virtually all the support Act gets will come from National, except some of the "one law for all" vote on race issues, which could come at the expense of New Zealand First.
Brash could easily get five percent or more, reducing National's vote and putting himself in a powerful position in any post-election negotiations.
That is the other damaging aspect of this for National. Brash is a polarising figure and the prospect of him having an influential Cabinet position could frighten the horses among soft National voters in the centre and give Labour some good fodder for raising alarm bells about a right wing revolution.
Of course going early would also leave Labour and New Zealand First scrambling and ill-prepared.
So, what about the justification?
Well, it's a mirror image of what Helen Clark faced before the 2002 election. Labour's coalition partner, the Alliance, was disintegrating, and she used the excuse to call a snap election. Sure, she didn't win a majority but at about 40% she scored double what the floundering Bill English could manage for National.
Key has the same excuse. In fact both his coalition partners - the Maori Party and Act - have splintered. If Hide does resign from Act his Ministerial portfolios become problematic.
Key can easily call for a fresh mandate for his government.
He doesn't even need to move the Budget. English could deliver it on May 19 and we could go to the polls in late June or early July, well ahead of the Rugby World Cup.
Yes I know Key said in February that the election would be on November 26. But who knew that by April, we would have had a devastating earthquake and that both coalition partners would have split in two?
Key has a Royal Wedding to think about now - but divorce with coalition partners looms at home.
The prospects of an early election must surely have at least crossed his mind.
Do you agree with Guyon? Should Key bring the election forward?