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Prime Minister John Key - Source: ONE News -
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If the first few weeks are anything to go by then this winter could end up being something of a ''winter of discontent'' for National.
Since the Budget there's hardly been anything positive for it to
trumpet, with the daily news cycle dominated by damaging stories
and slipping poll results.
Some of the damage, such as the teachers debacle, was
self-inflicted while other uncomfortable developments, such as the
Auditor General's probe into the SkyCity Convention Centre deal,
were somewhat out of its control.
National will be feeling battered and bruised from the onslaught and I know some within the party are a bit worried that this winter could yet turn really ugly and become like the infamous "winter of discontent" that Labour had in 2000, when the business community rebelled against it.
Given that risk you can bet John Key will be demanding his troops lift their game, cut out the mistakes and at least try to do a better job of handling the issues they can control.
There will be no panic though. That's not Key's style. The polls while slipping are not disastrous by any means and I would not expect to see any major new strategy aimed at stealing back the news agenda. Not yet any way.
National's brains trust is far more likely to ride out the winter blues and trust that the pain being experienced is short term in nature.
When it comes to the controversies like ACC, the Convention Centre and the teachers that kind of political management is probably right, although the next set of polls will be telling.
However there is a far greater problem potentially lurking for this Government and one that they may not be able to ignore with a steady as she goes approach.
And that is the economy.
Gloomy
The Reserve Bank's gloomy forecasts about Europe this week and its revision down in New Zealand's projected growth rate are a big blow to the Government's hopes of seeing anything like a traditional economic recovery before the next election.
For the last few years the Government's longer-term economic strategy has mostly focused on getting the books back in order, and rebalancing the economy away from consumption and towards the productive sector.
The goal being to provide an environment in which the private sector has greater access to the resources and capital it needs to grow.
Bill English's mantra is that it is business that creates jobs and growth, not the Government.
The problem is that to date it has not worked as well as planned.
New Zealand businesses, according to the Reserve Bank, are not investing in new technology, machinery and workers as they are supposed to.
Scars from the Global Financial Crisis and fear of another meltdown in Europe are apparently preventing business from taking on risk.
This is a major headache for English. Because if business isn't going to invest and create growth then who is?
As it stands the Government can still point to the fact that New Zealand is a lot better placed than many countries around the world.
It also has a rebuild in Christchurch that will generate some activity. It's not all bad and maybe things will feel better when the sun returns in October.
But make no mistake the pressure to deliver a decent economic recovery will start to build on this Government in coming months and years.
And if they can't deliver on that recovery, then hold on to your hats, because then we start to see some real action in the polls.