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I ran this idea past Paul Henry on Breakfast today and he seemed in favour.
Now, let's see whether John Key picks up on it: Ron Mark should be put in charge of the boot camps, planned by National as part of its crackdown on youth crime.
It could solve two problems for Key.
Firstly, a New Zealand First comeback is certainly not in his long term interests and with Winston Peters drifting further into the political wilderness , only Mark has any hope of rescuing the party.
But also it's right up Mark's alley. As a former soldier whose preoccupation in parliament was youth justice, I can't think of anyone better to do the job. Mark also used to help run the go-kart raceway which was a big favourite when I was a kid in Christchurch, so could he perhaps turn his mind to solving the boy-racer problem too?
The serious question though, with National introducing its plans for a " fresh start for young offenders " this week, is: will it work?
My answer is: good try, but probably not.
Why the cynicism? Well, like dieting, doomed relationships and the New Zealand cricket team , some things - no matter how hard you try - just aren't fixable.
Firstly let's look at what we're trying to fix here and whether what we've done so far has worked.
Facts have an annoying way of spoiling a good yarn and so it is with youth crime.
According to Ministry of Justice figures for the 1997 to 2006 period, the 30-39 and 40-plus age groups were responsible for a combined 48% of violent crime compared with the 17-19 and 20-24 year-old age groups, which accounted for 36%.
When you burrow a bit deeper the focus on "youth crime" becomes almost absurd. I'm looking at the Ministry of Justice paper "Conviction and Sentencing of Offenders in New Zealand" and it says that in 2006 fewer than 1% of cases involved offenders aged 14 to 16 years; 21% involved offenders aged 30 to 39 years and 19% involved offenders aged 40 or over.
Boot camps for middle aged men, anyone?
Sorry to bust another myth, but the Labour-led government actually had a very tough approach to law and order. In fact custodial sentences increased dramatically between 1997 and 2006, with the average non-parole period imposed on "life sentences" increasing from 11 to 15 years.
And what happened? The prison population climbed towards 8,000 inmates, we're scouting around for places to build new prisons and the public feels no safer.
Now don't get me wrong. I'm no bleeding heart liberal when it comes to law and order.
Crack down, or even ban, criminal gangs? Sure, if you can do it. Keep violent or murderous offenders locked up and away from the public for a very long time? Absolutely.
Trouble is, that law and order has always called for more sophisticated treatment than the cut and thrust politics allows.
The first two weeks of the parliamentary year will be dominated by a raft of tough, new justice polices including laws to crack down on gangs, to increase the ability of the police to collect DNA, Act's "three strikes and you're out" bill and a $50 "crim tax" to fund a victims' levy.
National is making good on the promises made in the heat of an election campaign - and fair enough.
Just don't expect it to have much effect.
Someone email me and correct me if I'm wrong, but I am pretty sure that the rate of homicide has stayed static per head of population in New Zealand for roughly a century.
What we do appear to have is an explosion of other violent, sexual and anti-social crimes and increased drug and alcohol problems.
This seems to have coincided with the greater social, economic and religious freedoms we've experienced as the economy and society has opened up since the mid-1980s.
Nearly every Western country has experienced similar problems.
Often those issues don't occur in societies which have strong religious and government controls - some Asian and Middle Eastern countries spring to mind - but those places have their own troubles.
It's a fiendishly complex issue that spans cultural, social and economic spheres and one that takes decades to evolve for better or for worse.
No amount of yelling at young punks in a boot camp - even by Sergeant Major Ron Mark - will change that.
What do you think of what Guyon is discussing? Share your view on the messageboard below.
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Post new commentGeoff Keey said on 2009-08-14 @ 01:47 NZDT: Report abusive post
Guyon, I was surprised to see you citing the Government's climate change cost estimates so uncritically given the extent to which they have been discredited.
stephen6565 said on 2009-08-13 @ 22:15 NZDT: Report abusive post
Another very poor article. You are part of the fourth estate and should be asking the hard questions of the govt. Making the govt accountable is not just the oppositions job. This whole article is just rubbish 'feelings' centred around your personal political views. Stick to policy and 'news' items.
geekypolitics said on 2009-08-11 @ 19:34 NZDT: Report abusive post
Mr. Espiner has some good advice for Labour especially on the environment, but the idea that Goff should "cuddle" up to Key is appalling. It is always difficult for the opposition to take a stance on matters that are of an international nature, as the reputation of the country as a united entity is at stake. Democrats in the U.S. had the same problem with regards to the Iraq War. I'd hate to see Labour make the same mistake in the name of "solidarity behind the troops."
Andrew Nichols said on 2009-08-11 @ 14:17 NZDT: Report abusive post
"Polls in Britain showed, counter-intuitively, that support for their troop deployment increased even as casualties mounted. " You're flat wrong! Current polling in the UKs major dailies actually shows majority and growing option to Britains involvement in Obams purposeless war. Not that that's ever bothered the govt there, who in time honoured fashion enjoy perpetuating "Britains post WW2 role as the Greeks to the US Empire" (Harold McMillan 1943)
Kereama said on 2009-08-11 @ 13:39 NZDT: Report abusive post
Of course Labour need to find their direction! They lost the election and they lost touch with grassroots NZ - National did too once, and it took them years to get back on track - but they did. The point is, the "road to nowhere" isn't permanent (unless you're Winston Peters... let's hope anyway). While it may be the opposition's role to critique the Government, the media has an obligation to do so also. Let the opposition "find" themselves and focus instead on the ones that count.