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Source: Fairfax -
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A swarm of small quakes west of Christchurch may show that Canterbury's most active current quake zone is breaking into small chunks, a geologist says.
Earthquake scientists believe a recent series of earthquakes measuring up to 4.3 magnitude could have a "positive take". But they also caution that the risk of another "big one" region-wide still remains high for the next 12 months.
A quake hit Christchurch this morning at 3.23am and measured 3.6. It was at a depth of 8km and centred 10km south-west of Christchurch. Ten minutes later there was a smaller 2.7 shake in the same area.
The Prebbleton area has been shaken regularly since Monday afternoon and Canterbury University earthquake scientist Mark Quigley said: "While the aftershocks tell us this particular area is still unhappy its current configuration, a positive take could be that the area is happy breaking in smaller chunks, that the fracture networks are not as connected to generate large earthquakes as the other areas have been."
Statistics show the risk of a big quake throughout Canterbury is still considerable, with the probability of a 5 to 5.4-magnitude quake in the next year sitting at a "very, very high" 78%.
And the chance of a 6 to 6.4 magnitude quake - the same strength as the February's shallow deadly earthquake - was 10%.
"That's not a low probability. Before last September's quake it would have been much, much lower," Quigley said.
However, the February fault zone has been very quiet since June, indicating it is "relatively settled", the expert said.
Quigley added: "The large aftershocks in Canterbury create their own sequences of aftershocks, effectively re-energizing the seismic sequence."
Quake payout warning
Meanwhile, Christchurch homeowners are being urged to get legal advice before they snap up payments offered by insurance companies for earthquake damage.
The New Zealand Law Society is cautioning Christchurch homeowners again after some residents accepted offers which appeared to be good at first only for them to find out later that they have been short-changed.
Christchurch lawyer Lindsay Lloyd from the Law Society said: "Everyone who lives in Christchurch wants to settle their claims and get on with living their lives.
"The problem is that if you don't take a careful look at the terms of any settlement agreement, you could find you have bound yourself to accepting something which is much less than could be gained by negotiation," he said.
He said in a recent case, an insurance company quoted an elderly red zone resident around $20,000 below what they were entitled to.
Lloyd said if it were not for the lawyer involved asking the right questions the client would not have received a fair and full entitlement.
The Society took out newspaper advertisements warning property owners earlier this year.
