The latest sequence of aftershocks to hit Canterbury is nearing its end, but there is no way of knowing if or when another round will occur, a leading scientist says.
There have now been more than 10,000 aftershocks in Canterbury, providing scientists with a greater understanding about how and why earthquakes happen.
TV ONE's Breakfast heard today that the aftershocks have slowed down a lot in the past few weeks and would seem to be coming to the end of their sequence.
However, GNS earthquake expert Kelvin Berryman said there are still many uncertainties.
Berryman said scientists are now "rather cautious of this slowing down" because they have seen it happen before, only for a new round of aftershocks to hit.
"We've been through three of four of those cycles but nature is a pretty complicated thing," he said.
"But overall we think we're moving towards the end of the sequence."
The aftershocks now occurring are tending to be centered further from the city, he added.
Berryman said when the first quakes hit, scientists knew less than they do now, and they have since been able to develop models to some degree of accuracy.
"I think scientists across the country of all sorts have done the best they can but we've been in crisis mode and certainly initially with a very significant lack of information to be able to provide the confidence advice going forward," he said.
"Overall we can suggest, based on experiences from around the world and the country, sort of an average expectation going forward."
The forecast now is that the chance of a severe earthquake, in the magnitude 6 to 6.4 size, is about 13% in the next year.
There is a "high probability of it not happening but still a finite possibility", Berryman said.
That is a best estimate but the uncertainty is still really high, he said.
New learning centre
Meanwhile, St Andrew's College will open its doors to a new learning centre today, marking the first anniversary of the February earthquake.
Over the past year schools in Christchurch suffered a series of shutdowns due to damage caused by the quakes and aftershocks.
Students were forced to share campuses or enroll in schools in other cities.
The new preparatory school was almost ready for use when the February quake struck, but damage on campus caused delays in the opening.
The school, which will teach year fours through to year eights, will be officially opened by the Governor General, Hon Sir Jerry Mateparae.
Royal Commission
The Earthquake Royal Commission will today look into why the stairwell collapsed in the Forsyth Barr building during last year's February earthquake.
The 18-storey central city building was a high profile casualty of February's earthquake, with office workers abseiling down the face of it after the stairwell crumbled.
The commission will this morning look into whether or not the building complied with earthquake-risk requirements.
Watch the ONE News coverage of the Christchurch quake anniversary with OnDemand
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