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David Kilcullen - Source: Q+A -
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A counter terrorism expert says trend lines in Afghanistan are bad and it is timely for New Zealand to send SAS troops to the country.
David Kilcullen says the level of violence in the south of Afghanistan is up about 500% since 2005 and the insurgency is covering a far greater area.
Kilcullen is a counter insurgency advisor to Nato and several governments, including the United States, and told TVNZ's Q+A programme on Sunday morning that New Zealand personnel are likely to be dealing with "high value targets" and partnering and mentoring.
He says this involves training, supporting and advising Afghan forces.
Kilcullen says the New Zealand PRT has been effective in protecting and working with the local population on the ground and this is likely to continue. But he says when you do that the enemy "tends to come out of the woodwork and try to attack you" and that's where the special forces come in.
Kilcullen is the author of The Accidental Guerilla and says even though the locals might not like the Taliban, a lot of Afghans have found themselves drawn into the fighting on the side of the Afghan against the foreigner.
And he told Paul Holmes the trouble with strategies such as drone bombing is that they antagonise communities and contribute to a rise in radicalisation which can ultimately undermine the bigger effort. He says this backlash in which the population ends up pushing back against foreign forces leads to accidental guerrillas.
Kilcullen says New Zealand has a had an independent, visible and positive contribution in Afghanistan but going forward violence is likely to escalate and the addition of special forces troops is "probably a timely thing to be doing".
And he says with the new command team in Afghanistan "we're going to start seeing some pretty new strategy on the ground that may assist in turning that around."
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