The mood of the nation is at the lowest point since the global
financial crisis of 2008 - and New Zealanders' hopes for this year
are bleak.
A survey to gauge our outlook reveals a steady decline in optimism
over the past two years, as the global economy teeters and
Canterbury recovers from a series of devastating earthquakes.
It follows a boost in spirits in early 2009, after the election of
a National-led government in 2008.
New Zealanders were briefly lifted by last year's Rugby World Cup,
75% rating their happiness as seven out of 10 or greater in
October. By December it had fallen to 69%.
Job satisfaction remains below its 2008 peak, at 80%.
A special 20-year edition of polling agency UMR's annual Mood of
the Nation has tracked Kiwis' spirits over the past two decades. A
record low came in 1991, just after the deeply unpopular fourth
Labour government left office and a severe economic recession
engulfed the country, prompting National's punishing "Mother of all
Budgets".
It improved considerably from 1999 to 2003, reflecting a new
government, a popular prime minister in Helen Clark, high
employment, and rising house prices.
A similar lift was seen between 1991 and 1995.
But Kiwis soon sank into the doldrums as a recession bit, relations
between National and coalition partner Winston Peters soured, and
the government's popularity dropped.
UMR also tracks happiness, and ratings have trended down since
2007, when 85% of people scored seven out of 10 or higher. That
year, at the tail end of the fourth Labour government which
invested heavily in social reform, 42% rated nine out of 10,
compared to 23% in December last year.
However, it seems the mood will lift as an increasing number of
people put their faith in an improvement in the economy, the health
and transport systems, and the environment over the next
decade.
Although our mood is low, we are more likely to be satisfied with
our finances, housing and personal life.
Mindworks psychologist Sara Chatwin believes New Zealanders have
been on a rollercoaster of emotion over the past 12 months.
"It was a year where we had amazing lows and an amazing high with
the world cup. We were shocked as a nation over what happened in
Christchurch, we were shocked about Pike River, and then were
exuberant and exhilarated by the world cup."
AUT Professor of Sociology Charles Crothers said the nation's mood
was more likely to follow economic rather than political
cycles.
"What we have got is a doubling up of politics and economics at the
same time. There may be separate economic and political cycles, but
when they co-join it really has a cumulative effect."
But political leadership was also a factor.
"Reaction to leaders has its own cycle. People get a bit fed up
with the leader. John Key has that feel-good factor, although he is
losing it at the moment."
More than half of those questioned (58%) over the past year believe
the country is on the right track, down from a 20-year high in 2009
of 65%. Hopes for the economy are especially gloomy as the effects
of the Euro-debt crisis and the Canterbury earthquakes hit
home.
After a largely optimistic 2010, only 38% believe the economy will
improve, and 42% think it will get worse. Just 35% expect an
improved standard of living.
We are moderately optimistic about long-term prospects for the
economy - 45% believe it will be better in 10 years. And almost 50%
think unemployment will rise over the next 13 months.
National's law and order policies appear to have paid off - 40%
believe policing will get better over the next decade, up from
seven per cent in 2010.
More than a third believe things are looking up for the environment
(up 8%) in the years to 2022.
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