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Ryan Nelsen poster on streets of Wellington - Source: ONE Sport -
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There can only be one result on Saturday night at Westpac Stadium
By hook or by crook the All Whites have to win their World Cup playoff against Bahrain as the whole of New Zealand expects success and Wellington is geared up for the party to end all parties.
But a logical examination of the facts shows that the prospect of misery in the capital is very real.
Here are seven reasons to be afraid, very afraid.
1. History repeats
If history is any guide, don't favour the Australasian team in sudden death World Cup playoffs. Putting aside Australias win over Uruguay in 2005, since 1974 the Oceania winner has only prevailed three times in nine attempts. Australia beat South Korea to qualify for the 1974 World Cup in Germany and of course the All Whites scored the famous victory over China in 1981 which sent them to Spain
2. Cotton wool club
Everybody knows that playing matches against top-flight opposition is crucial for success in any sport. In this way Bahrain have the edge of the All Whites in spades.
The Middle Eastern nation have played 18 qualifying ties thus far, including home and away matches against top-rated nations like Australia, Japan, Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia.
The All Whites had just four matches, against relative minnows from the Islands and didn't always have their overseas-based stars available. Ricki Herbert's men did compete in the Confederations Cup but these were not sudden death games and are difficult to compare.
3. Remember the NRL
There is a truism around NRL Grand Finals that you have to lose one before you can taste victory. The same could be applied to World Cup playoffs. Australia endured heartbreaking near misses in 1998 and 2002 before finally reaching their nadir in 2006 while of even more relevance Bahrain were just minutes away from qualifying for Germany in 2006 before Trinidad and Tobago scored a late, late, goal.
4. Bahrain holds all the aces
While Bahrain would have liked to win in the first leg in Manama, a 0-0 draw is still the ideal situation for Milan Macala's men. They know that any goal they score counts double, can afford to defend in depth and play on the counterattack and will take a score draw as their ticket to South Africa. Only with a two goal lead will the home side be able to relax at any stage on Saturday night.
5. Ricki's greatest risk
The All Whites are about to play the biggest game of their lives with a 3-4-3 formation that they have only used once before, in the 90 minutes versus Bahrain in October. It is almost akin to the All Blacks playing the 2011 World Cup final with a completely new backline. While we should admire coach Ricki Herbert's sudden penchant for risk taking, the opposition have had 18 competitive matches to fine tune formations and tactics.
6. Silencing the home crowd
Much has been made of the 36,000 fans that will pack Westpac Stadium on Saturday night, and the Yellow Fever boys, re-inventing themselves as 'White Noise' for the night, will ensure huge, fanatical support for the All Whites. But this will not bother Bahrain one bit.
They have already played away against Australia, Japan, Uzbekistan and most importantly against Saudi Arabia where they silenced a crowd of 60,000 with a last minute equaliser to progress to the match against the All Whites.
7. Don't wait for Cinderella
There are no fairytales in modern day sport, as Andy Roddick, Tom Watson, and Stacey Jones discovered in 2009. While the entire nation wills a New Zealand victory, and is already discussing possible opponents next July in South Africa, ultimate triumph will only come after 90 (or 120 minutes) of drama and tension and is by no means guaranteed.
Do you think that the All Whites can overcome these obstacles and qualify for the World Cup? Leave your comments below.
Add a Comment:
Post new commentrichy said on 2009-11-13 @ 22:49 NZDT: Report abusive post
I think all he's trying to say is that it won't be as easy as a lot of people expect for the All-Whites to win this weekend. And Bahrain should go in as favourites. It's all good being positive and supporting the boys, but really NZ are up against it. Bahrain has had so many more games as a team together, home and away, and tough sudden death games too. In saying that I'm really hoping that NZ can come through with this one. Fingers crossed for typical Wellington weather!
Hachiko said on 2009-11-13 @ 20:55 NZDT: Report abusive post
Hey Mike: You pulling for the Bahrainis? Fess up, chief.
cazba said on 2009-11-13 @ 20:31 NZDT: Report abusive post
We seem to have forgotten that Bahrain's top goal scorer is out injured
RyanH said on 2009-11-13 @ 16:25 NZDT: Report abusive post
2. Top rated teams? Does 24th, 40th, 64th and 80th in the worls count as top rated? Where as the All Whites have played Italy (ranked 4th) and Spain (ranked 2nd) 4. Away goals do not count as double, they count as a tie-breaker if there is a draw. 6. The crowd could well be a factor, and if not, the weather could certainly be! 7. No fairytails? Try Man Utd's comeback in the 1999 Champions League or Liverpools in 2005? Juan Martin Del Potro & Kim Clijsters in the US open?
Keep It Real said on 2009-11-13 @ 15:00 NZDT: Report abusive post
If the All Whites do win I hope this fella writes something next week that says sorry - I was wrong. He is playing with fate and let's all hope he gets egg all over his face!