If you'd asked: 'who is the biggest loser from the teapot tape story?' I suspect few people would have answered: the Labour Party.
But that is the cruel, and unjust, verdict of the latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll.
The poll was taken between Saturday and Wednesday and so captures the five days after John Key and John Banks sat down for that fateful cuppa in Epsom, oblivious to the little black bag containing a recording device.
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Since then the media coverage of the campaign has been saturated by the teapot tape, despite its contents being relatively benign and largely disclosed by now anyway.
The effect has been that Labour, which started with a hiss and a roar, has been shut out of the debate and its new and substantial policies on compulsory KiwiSaver, capital gains tax and raising the retirement age, have been shunted to the background of the election campaign.
What started out as a clean campaign focused on the economy has become mired in a conflict between the media and the Prime Minister over a secret tape recording.
At issue? What was said about a dysfunctional and largely defunct political party and a throw away comment about New Zealand First supporters which, while it would have been made more delicately in public, is hardly cause for outrage.
The police seeking material from news media organisations is heavy handed and unnecessary and could yet steer the story in another direction.
And Key's comment that because National has lowered the crime rate, police "do have a little bit of spare time and this is a really important issue'' is a stupid one, and displays poor judgment.
But as I said in my last post on this issue I think the saga probably just confirms the worst prejudices the voting public has about the media and the politicians and so the impact is limited.
The poll tends to bear that theory out, with little impact on the fortunes of National and ACT, who want the tape kept secret, or New Zealand First, which has been leading the charge for its release.
The drop for Labour's isn't large either but it is significant. Labour has lost another two percentage points in this poll and has now dropped two points in each of the last three One News/Colmar Brunton polls.
They started the campaign at 30% and now, with just over a week to go, sit at 26%, a level where genuine collapse must be a real concern.
Green Party involvement in the mass defacement of National Party billboards has not hurt the party, perhaps because it was deftly and decisively handled by Russel Norman.
In fact the Greens are soaring at Labour's expense. On this result they would have 16 MPs, half as many as the Labour Party.
The curious thing about the teapot tape saga is that it seems the least interesting thing is what is actually on the tape.
When the media finally publish or broadcast it, the story largely dies (except the element of the police investigation).
In my view the two men with the most to gain from the tape being published or broadcast by the media are John Key and Phil Goff.
Key, because it seems that what he said was of little consequence and Goff, because he has just eight days to move the campaign on and talk about something which will deliver a respectable result for Labour on November 26.
To read more Guyon Espiner opinion click here.
What do you think? Have your say on the messageboard below.
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Add a Comment:
Post new commentthe stebu said on 2011-11-22 @ 11:05 NZDT: Report abusive post
When do we find out how much the taper was paid. No doubt the press will (and probably have) said that this is "private". Funny how there has been no comment about this at all - nor about who is paying for the unusual Court proceedings which try to head off a bona fide criminal investigation.
RyanH said on 2011-11-22 @ 11:02 NZDT: Report abusive post
Such a strange situation. If the tapes had just been released straight away it all would have blown over in a day or two. The idea that it Mr Key and Mr Banks were having a 'private conversation' is frankly ludicrous. If you asked any regular person if they feel they were having a private conversation when multiple cameras are pointing at them through a window from less than 3 feet away the only reasonable answer would be no, regardless of whether or not there is a recorder sitting on the desk.
annej said on 2011-11-21 @ 09:50 NZDT: Report abusive post
The tea tapes have a bigger picture,think bankers trust + key its all about honesty,integrity.
Sirroco said on 2011-11-18 @ 12:41 NZDT: Report abusive post
Surely, the distraction over the tea cup recording has been fostered and fuelled by the media, and not by a clamour from voters. The media has a greater duty to allow the politicians time and space to present their policies for the election, and to avoid a self interested campaign to out the recorded comments.
Sirroco said on 2011-11-18 @ 12:39 NZDT: Report abusive post
Agree with your comments. Surely, the distraction over the tea cup recording has been fostered and fuelled by the media, and not by a clamour from voters. The media has a greater duty to allow the politicians time and space to present their policies for the election, and to avoid a self interested campaign to out the recorded comments.