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Prime Minister John Key addresses the National Party Conference - Source: Fairfax -
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Finally gravity has caught up with National's sky high poll ratings.
As expected, National's support has come off the peaks of the mid-50s and in most polls is sitting where the One News/Colmar Brunton poll put them tonight - bang on 50%.
In my view they're likely to creep down a few more points by Saturday night - I'm picking National to poll around the 46% to 47% mark.
That sort of result could get them close to an absolute majority, depending on the level of the wasted vote.
That is why New Zealand First could be crucial.
The closer New Zealand First gets to the 5% threshold, without actually breaching it, the better the outcome for National because it increases the level of wasted vote, which means National doesn't have to score as highly to get a Parliamentary majority.
If New Zealand First does get 5%-plus things become more difficult for John Key, especially if National drifts back to the mid-40s.
But it is difficult to see how Labour can form a government.
Polling for the Labour/Green block has been roughly 40% for much of the term, what's been changing has been the mix.
For most of the last three years Labour has polled 34% and the Greens 6%.
In the middle of the campaign the Greens peaked at 13% and Labour dropped back to 26%.
This poll has Labour regaining ground to 28% at the expense of the Greens, who have dropped back to 10%.
But regardless of the mix, a 40% Labour/Green block is not a sufficient base from which to build a government, even if you add in New Zealand First, at say 5%.
It might just be possible if you add in four Maori Party votes too - although in my view it is far more likely they will again back National.
Of course this whole scenario is redundant anyway if we take Winston Peters at his word that he will not give confidence and supply to either side.
If that were true, then it becomes almost impossible for Labour, without a substantial lift in its own vote.
But of course Peters' record means his coalition position will be treated with a large dose of scepticism.
Before the 2005 election Peters claimed New Zealand First would not be going into government, only to take the position of Foreign Minister in the Labour-led government after the votes were counted.
The other possible wild card in this election is the Conservative Party.
The One News/Colmar Brunton poll has them at 2.4%. At that level of support they would have three seats if Colin Craig won the Rodney electorate.
Surely that would be three seats for centre right, which begs the question: Did John Key pick the wrong party to have a cup of tea with?
To read more Guyon Espiner opinion click here
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