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John Key and Phil Goff - Source: ONE News -
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The race is getting tighter two days out from the election.
The final ONE News Colmar Brunton poll of the campaign shows National could still govern alone, but only just.
Labour's support has risen and Winston Peters is knocking on the door of Parliament.
The poll surveyed 1000 people over the last five days.
National has slipped back three points to 50%. Labour is on 28% but has just grabbed votes back off the Greens who drop down to 10%.
New Zealand First rises to 4.2%, putting its leader Winston Peters in striking distance of the 5% he needs to get back into Parliament.
The Conservative Party has continued to rise, to 2.4%, making them the other stand out among the minor parties.
The Maori Party has 2% support, Act 1.7%, the Mana Party 1% and United Future 0.1%.
If it plays out this way on Saturday night, National would govern alone with 65 seats.
Assuming current electorate seats are held, a National-led Government could also add in four seats from the Maori Party, two from Act and one from United Future.
On the poll's numbers, Labour cannot form a government, even adding their 36 seats with 13 from the Greens.
ONE News political editor Guyon Espiner says National Party leader John Key and Labour leader Phil Goff have now squared off in three televised leaders debates, so people have had a good chance to compare them.
Key is the preferred prime minister for 52% of people, the poll shows.
Goff has just 15%, but that is double the support he had at the start of the campaign.
Espiner says National is well placed for a second term, but even some small movement in these numbers could make it difficult for them.
He says the crucial factor is Peters. If he misses out it is a clear win for National. If he gets back it does make it harder for Key to form a government, Espiner says.
But if Labour remains under 30% they just do not have enough support to govern even if New Zealand first is added in, Espiner says.
He says it is interesting to note that Colin Craig's Conservative Party is at 2.5%.
"If he won the Rodney seat that's three MP for the centre right."
Espiner said: "So you have to wonder whether John Key picked the wrong party to have a cup of tea with."
Key had a discussion over a cup of tea with Act's Epsom candidate John Banks in an Auckland cafe earlier in the campaign.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.
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