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Brendon McCullum - Source: Photosport -
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A simple toss of the coin could decide Pakistan's three-Test series in New Zealand. That's how close the contest promises to be.
It's hard to know who deserves favouritism going into Tuesday's first Test; because on paper and on recent history, there is absolutely nothing to tell between the teams.
Both go into the Test sporting sharp pace attacks and wobbly batting line-ups. Both have endured their fair share of behind-the-scenes turmoil in recent months.
And both have the frustrating knack of looking like world-beaters one day and no-hopers the next.
The bookmakers can't decide on a winner either - New Zealand is paying $2.75 for the win, Pakistan is paying $2.70 and the draw is at $2.75.
And their respective Test rankings of sixth and seventh hint point to a series that will be highly-competitive, even if it isn't high quality.
Last time Pakistan toured in 2004, they won a two-match series 1-0 thanks to a Black Caps batting implosion in the second Test - and with both batting lineups looking brittle this time around, the series may not be decided on who plays the better cricket over 15 days, but rather who can keep their composure at vital times.
Top order batting
Pakistan's inexperienced top order will be unfamiliar to New Zealand audiences. Khurram Manzoor averages 34 in his five Tests, whilst first drop Fawad Alam made a big century on debut in Sri Lanka in July. The other opener, Imran Farhat, and Alam both notched fifties in the tour match in Queenstown and look a safer bet than the Black Caps' shaky alliance at the top of the order. They lost their second wicket at 80, 37, 49 and 41 during their last series in Sri Lanka and must do better this series to give their middle order a break.
Advantage: Pakistan.
Middle order batting
Mohammed Yousuf is the standout batsman on either side and will anchor a strong middle order will also feature the versatile Shoaib Malik and exciting debutant Umar Akmal. New Zealand's middle order will rely heavily on Ross Taylor, with the recalled pair of Grant Elliott and Peter Fulton boasting only a few Tests between them. Neither has enjoyed a glittering start to their Test career and they're fighting for one place when Jesse Ryder returns from injury.
Advantage: Pakistan.
Fast bowling
New Zealand's likely new ball pairing of Martin and Bond looks as dangerous on paper as any combination that's been tried in recent years, while one of O'Brien and Tuffey will count themselves unlucky to miss out on the third seamer's role. But Pakistan have brought plenty of ammo to the gunfight, with spearhead Umar Gul - a survivor of the 2004 tour - likely to be joined by promising youngster Mohammed Aamer and speedster Mohammed Asif on his return from a two-year drug ban. But local knowledge and the return of Bond probably sees the Black Caps quicks just shade their counterparts here.
Advantage: New Zealand
Slow bowling
Pakistan management have indicated that they're likely to take pick late bloomer Saeed Ajmal ahead of veteran leggie Danish Kaneria, no doubt hoping he can emulate the form that made him nigh on unplayable when he faced the Black Caps in the recent ICC Champions Trophy. But he is up against the master in Dan Vettori, who is peerless in his ability to contain and frustrate batsmen with crafty variations in flight and speed. Ajmal will have the advantage of bowling at batsmen far less adept at playing spin than his own teammates; nevertheless Vettori is the better all-round cricketer.
Advantage: New Zealand
Wicket keeper
Two of the game's most exciting keeper/batsmen go head to head for the first time in Tests, and there's very little to tell between them in terms of experience and batting stats. Akmal has the fastest Test ton and twice the number of centuries over all but if you had to pick a gamebreaker, it would probably be McCullum. Both have developed into capable glovemen.
Advantage: Evens.
Fielding
The Pakistanis may not be as hapless in the field as they were 15
years ago, but their recent ODI series against the Black Caps
suggested a certain sloppiness towards ground fielding
remains. It's an area of the game the Black Caps have worked
hard on and they're now regarded as one of the better fielding
units in world cricket.
Advantage: New Zealand.
Likely teams:
New Zealand Tim McIntosh, Martin Guptill, Daniel Flynn, Ross Taylor, Peter Fulton, Grant Elliott, Brendon McCullum (wk), Daniel Vettori (c), 9 Shane Bond, Daryl Tuffey, Chris Martin.
Pakistan Khurram Manzoor, Imran Farhat, Fawad Alam, Mohammad Yousuf (c) Shoaib Malik, Umar Akmal, Kamran Akmal (wk), Umar Gul, Mohammad Asif, Mohammad Aamer, Saeed Ajmal.
The summer of cricket is almost upon us and once again, tvnz.co.nz is the place to go for all your cricketing needs.
As well as the usual reports and scorecards from matches both home and abroad, tvnz.co.nz will bring you full LIVE text commentary of Black Caps matches throughout the summer.
This week, the comprehensive coverage will be augmented by regular updates and expert analysis from sideline eye Max Bania at Dunedin's picturesque University Oval, as well as a daily wrap detailing the day's key moments, major players and what he had for lunch.
So if you cant get to a TV this summer, make tvnz.co.nz/cricket your one-stop shop for cricketing action!
Follow this story to ONE News at 6pm. Craig Stanaway wraps up the action from the first day of the Test.
