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Daniel Vettori thinks it over - Source: Photosport -
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Doug Bollinger may have bristled when asked if his latterly-flowing blond locks would be able stand up to Wellington's southerly, but it's the Black Caps who are in danger of being blown away when the first Test begins on Friday morning.
They haven't beaten Australia in a Test since 1993, and that's unlikely to change over the course of this weekend.
With the blue ribbon event of the summer upon us - a five-day game against the old foe at the home of New Zealand cricket - there is little in the books of form, history or common sense to suggest the home side will rise above an indifferent few months to deliver a performance worthy of the Basin's proud history.
Notwithstanding the infamous two-day Test in 1946, in which the Black Caps were rolled for 42 and 54, coach Mark Greatbatch was right in pointing out earlier this week that Australia doesn't have the best of records at the Basin.
They have won just two of the eight Tests they've played here. Trouble is, the Black Caps have won just one - a Hadlee and Wright inspired victory against Allan Border's men almost 20 years ago to the day.
Those two names remain prominent in New Zealand cricket's backroom, but what Daniel Vettori wouldn't give to have a few more players of their ilk at his disposal.
With two of his best bowlers (Shane Bond and Iain O'Brien) lost to retirement and Jesse Ryder still out through injury, the Black Caps lack the genuine class of their opponents in both disciplines.
Quite how they could conspire to send a green and out-of-form top three into battle against Australia beggars belief. It seems perverse to have your three best batsman - Taylor, Guptill and Vettori - occupying the three lowest positions in the top six, but that is the likely scenario.
The trio may be in their preferred positions, but that's of little consolation when they're facing a newish ball with their team three down for not many.
The top order of Tim McIntosh, BJ Watling and Peter Ingram failed in their only previous assignment together - an easy one against Bangladesh - and there will be huge pressure on McIntosh as the only one of the trio to have proven he can play long, dogged innings in Test matches.
They will take some comfort in knowing that although this Australian touring party is a formidable foe, they're not of the same vintage as the teams that dominated Tests here in 2000 and 2005.
It would be naive to assume that the Australians or their vice-captain will allow themselves to be distracted by the Bingle-gate fiasco. After all, they are no strangers to the odd off-field imbroglio and if anything, the controversy and infamy they regularly attract seems to galvanise them.
The top six looks ominously good, with Marcus North - who appears to have fought off the challenge of all-rounder Steve Smith for the number six slot - the only weak link. And there will be little respite from a lower order that contains Brad Haddin and Mitchell Johnson.
Nevertheless, there are conspicuous cracks in the armour that have been exposed in turn by India, South Africa and England in the past 18 months.
Australia's obvious batting strength can't disguise the fact that seldom in recent memory have their bowling stocks been so depleted. Johnson is a proven match-winner but the loss of Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenhaus to injury are serious blows.
Elsewhere, there is an unexceptional look to the rest of the bowlers, who have spent their home summer boosting their averages against sub-par international batsmen.
Of the certainties to be picked in Wellington, off-spinner Nathan Hauritz is steady but unspectacular, while Doug Bollinger boasts an excellent Test record but is out of form after being hammered in the ODI series.
Of the others, paceman Clint McKay made little impression in his only Test against the West Indies, but will play if debutant Ryan Harris' side strain rules him out. Little is known about rookie Smith's leg-spinning abilities, and nothing is known about Harris's injury cover, Peter George.
The Black Caps selectors have the more straightforward job. Jeetan Patel looked the favourite to take the final bowling spot earlier in the week, but his place instead looks like going to debutant Brent Arnel.
Taking an untried medium-pacer into battle against the Australians is a risk, but it fits Vettori's modus operandi of unleashing the seamers on the first morning whenever possible. It's not a universally popular policy here, however.
"I think they should play two spinners........ mainly because if the three quicks can't do it, a fourth is not going to make a lot of difference", says Aussie off-spinning great Ashley Mallett, who is here for the week to mentor New Zealand's tweakers.
"(Jeetan) bowled very well on the Tuesday (in the nets), and I think it was a good yardstick that he bowled well to fellas like McCullum who is a tremendous talent".
Arnel's appeal as an into-the-wind bowler - a role O'Brien performed admirably on his home ground - probably tips the scales in his favour.
Who the Black Caps pick and whether they bowl first may not even matter, though. Their bowlers seldom let them down; it's the batsmen who must tie themselves to the rigging and dig in, or they'll be tossed asunder by the Wellington wind.
Teams:
New Zealand: Tim McIntosh, BJ Watling, Peter
Ingram, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, Daniel Vettori (c), Brendon
McCullum (wk), Daryl Tuffey, Tim Southee, Brent Arnel, Chris
Martin.
Australia: Simon Katich, Phil Hughes, Ricky
Ponting (c), Michael Clarke, Mike Hussey, Marcus North, Brad Haddin
(wk), Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Hauritz, Doug Bollinger, Ryan
Harris.
A history of trans-Tasman Tests at the Basin:
March 29-April 2, 1946: Australia won by an innings and 103 runs.
1-4 March, 1974: Match drawn.
26 Feb-2 March 1982: Match drawn.
21-25 Feb, 1986: Match drawn.
15-19 March, 1990: New Zealand won by 9 wickets.
4-8 March, 1993: Match drawn.
24-28 March, 2000: Australia won by 6 wickets.
18-22 March, 2005: Match drawn.
