A political scientist says the estimated 218,000 special votes that are still to be counted could favour Labour.
Nigel Roberts of Victoria University says special votes tended to favour National under First Past the Post and favoured the Greens under the last two MMP elections. But he says there was a lot of anecdotal evidence that many tertiary students enrolled to vote after Labour announced its free student loans policy, which would make them special voters.
Professor Roberts says there is more likely to be a Labour led-government than National-led after the dust has settled.
The final voting numbers will be announced on October 1.
Caretaker Prime Minister Helen Clark says she will be working to avoid another election as she begins talks with the minor parties to form the next government.
Clark says the Greens, United Future, the Progressives and Maori Party are all potential partners, and she and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters have exchanged answer phone messages.
National leader Don Brash admits his party's chances of forming a government are slim, but says Labour also faces substantial challenges.
Brash says the final vote won't be known until special votes are counted, and he's keeping all doors open at this stage. He says his party won fewer votes on the night, but if special votes close the gap between National and Labour the whole ball game could change.
Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia says they hope to have feedback on which party they should join with before the special votes are counted. Turia says the party will take calls from both Labour and National, and take their proposals back to a series of hui.
United Future is waiting until the special votes are counted before it decides which of the two major political parties it will back. The party's presence in parliament has been slashed from eight to three MPs following the election. Leader Peter Dunne says his party will not support a coalition containing the Greens, but Dunne says it could back a Labour-led government if its arrangement with the Greens extended only to support on confidence and supply.
Act leader Rodney Hide says he believes there is still a chance a centre-right government could be formed. Hide's win in Epsom gives Act two MPs, but National will also need New Zealand First, United Future and the Maori Party to form a government.
Hide says Act's win in Epsom makes all the difference in the world for National's prospects and the support of the Maori Party should not be ruled out. He says there will need to be some horse-trading, but Maori were right to protest the government's action to refuse them recourse to the courts over the seabed and foreshore issue.
And Hide says the centre-right did well at the polls, but could have done better if National had worked with Act instead of against it.
In the last two MMP elections the Greens have increased their numbers after the counting of specials. With only 5.07% of the party share and about 218,000 votes to be counted the balance could shift significantly for the Greens. On current numbers they will have six MPs but they only need to get to 5.30% to get Nandor Tanczos back into parliament. However, if the Green Party's share dropped below the 5% threshold Labour would be faced with a much harder task to form a government.
Jim Anderton's Progressives need to lift their 1.21% election night count to 1.23% to get Matt Robson back, but analysts suggest this is unlikely. NZ First's seven, United Future's three and Act's two seats are also considered unlikely to changed by specials.
If one of the smaller parties gets an extra MP National would lose a seat and have 48 MPs. Labour would be in a stronger position if the Greens or Progressives gained another seat.
Labour and National 's election-night share of the vote fell slightly after the counting of specials in 2002.
Many of the special votes were cast by voters away from their electorate, while thousands also cast their votes overseas.
Three of the results from Saturday were close. In Otaki, Labour incumbent Darren Hughes scraped home with a majority of just 226 over National opponent Guy Nathan. Labour's Steve Chadwick edged out National's Gilbert Stehbens by 532 votes in Rotorua and National's Bob Clarkson beat New Zealand First leader Winston Peters by 568 in Tauranga.
And the next parliament term will have 122 MPs instead of the usual 120. The two-seat overhang is the result of the Maori Party winning four electorate seats, even though its share of the party vote would normally entitle it to just two.
The chief executive of the Electoral Commission, Helena Catt, says the larger parliament means a viable coalition would need more than the usual 60 MPs.
