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The election campaign is heating up with National taking a commanding lead in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll.
National has shot up six points to 46%, Labour drops five points to 38%, creating a eight point gap two weeks out from polling day.
The Green Party is down one point to 6%. New Zealand First steady on 5% - they polled just a little under that but the figures are rounded out.
The Maori Party is up one point to 2%, while Act is down one point to 1%. United Future and Destiny New Zealand both have 1% support.
How would this translate into seats if it was an election night result? Allowing for Jim Anderton, Tariana Turia and Peter Dunne holding their electorate seats, National would be the largest party with 56 seats. It would be five short of a majority, so it would need NZ First's six.
Labour would have 46 seats - it has one pledged from Anderton's Progressives. The Greens would offer seven, but even with two from United Future and two from the Maori Party, it's still not enough. Labour would need the Greens and NZ First - a combination that is simply not going to happen.
NZ First is technically polling just under the crucial 5% threshold and leader Winston Peters is behind in his electorate, so what would happen if NZ First didn't make the cut?
National with 59 could form a majority with United Future's two seats.
Labour on 49 would need every other party - the Progressive's one, the Greens' seven, the Maori Party's two and United Future's two seats then become crucial.
It's a combination that may not happen, but judging by this poll it's a scenario worth considering.
In the preferred prime minister rankings, Helen Clark drops five points to 40%. Brash is up four to 31% while Peters is steady on seven.
