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The inevitable questions that the 2007 US Open poses in the
minds of tennis fans everywhere are: Can Rafael Nadal stop Roger
Federer from winning a record equaling four US titles in four
attempts?
And which of the three top female players; Justine Henin, Serena -
or Venus - Williams will survive the ferociously competitive lower
half of the women's draw and progress to the final (where the
tournament organisers clearly hope they'll engineer a Maria
Sharapova repeat appearance)?
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have this year confirmed that they have developed the basis of a worthy rivalry that can, and will be, considered in the same regard as that of other greats such as Bjorg and McEnroe, McEnroe and Connors, Sampras and Agassi - and probably a more a truly competitive rivalry at that (NB).
Federer is ranked the No 1 seed for the fourth consecutive year and, like last year, is gunning for his third Slam of the year. Nadal and Federer have met in the last two Grand Slam finals and it is widely accepted that Nadal has been the only man standing between the Swiss master and THE Grand Slam - all four majors in a row, the pinnacle of elite tennis feats.
Their last major final duel on the grass of Wimbledon, ostensibly Federer's best surface, was an epic where Nadal demonstrated during a 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-2 loss that he has improved and modified his game to the point where he is increasingly a threat to the World No.1 on any surface - even Federer's favourite. The hard courts of Flushing Meadows will represent a very even battle field for these two to wage war upon.
The men's draw
Federer appears to have a non-hazardous progression to the fourth round (as is the top seed's right) mapped out for him by the tournament organisers as he avoids any player of real note until he likely meets his fourth round Wimbledon opponent this year Juan Carlos Ferrero (four sets & 9-3 overall record), or Wimbledon quarter final opponent Richard Gasquet (three sets & 6-1 record) - depending on which of these two prevails in the third round. A quarter-final berth is all but booked for Federer as he has had little trouble disposing of these two in the past.
Nadal on the other hand has a tougher draw which will probably see him face either veteran Briton Tim Henman (who has announced that this will be his last Slam before retirement) or more likely Argentine 24th seed David Nalbandian who has, however, had a poor season by comparison to his considerable talent.
Should Nadal beat the Argentinian then the in-form Aussie pitbull, No.16 seed, Lleyton Hewitt appears likely to lay in wait in the fourth round in what will be arguably the toughest match-up of that round. Hewitt has demonstrated strong form in the lead-up to this US Open and pushed Federer all the way at New Haven last week losing that semi-final in three sets: 6-3, 6-7, 7-6.
Elsewhere in the men's draw heavy swinging American No 6 seed James Blake has good lead-up form under his belt with a final appearance in Cincinnati (lost to Federer) and a title win over compatriot Mardy Fish in New Haven last week. Blake also looks to have a sympathetic draw that should see him through to the fourth round without too much trouble. There he should expect to meet former World No 1 and one time French Open champion Carlos Moya (17th seed) in a match he would be favoured to win.
Flamboyant Cypriot, 18th seed and 2006 Australian Open finalist, Marcos Baghdatis looks to have a inviting run to the fourth round where experienced pros Guillermo Canas (14th seed) or Tommy Haas (10th seed) will lay in wait. Baghdatis is an exhilarating shot maker who plays his best tennis on hard courts and responds well to passionate crowds.
On both the men's and woman's tours this year the most exciting talents to emerge to regular prominence have been that of photogenic Serbians youngsters Novak Djokovic (third seed) and Ana Ivanovic (fifth).
World No.3 Djokovic has begun to demonstrate the extent of his prodigious talent with a remarkable run of success this season as he has reached three Masters event finals winning two; in Miami and Montreal, on similar surfaces to Flushing Meadows. He has also backed up his breakthrough Grand Slam quarter-final performance at the French Open last year with semi-final appearances at the French Open and Wimbledon this year. During his title winning run at the Canadian Open this month he accomplished the almost unthinkable by beating the world No 1 (Federer), 2 (Nadal) & 3 (Roddick) ranked players on consecutive days. He has a highly aggressive, well rounded, all-court game and behind Federer and Nadal stands out as the leading contender to challenge for a final berth.
Tournament fifth seed, and world No.5 ranked player, Andy Roddick will face a powerful young player with an aggressive all court game much like his own: Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu (22nd) in the third round. Once he negotiates this hurdle he has the prospect of his nemesis Federer ahead in the quarterfinals to look forward to. Roddick's sole Grand Slam title in an otherwise glittering career was won at the US Open in 2003. However since that breakthrough win he has gone on to lose three consecutive Slam finals; Wimbledon in 2004 & '05 and the US in '05. All three of those finals losses have been at the hands of Federer and the Swiss No 1 holds a crushing 13-1 career winning record over the American.
Relentless Russian counter-puncher and fourth seed Nikolay Davydenko has strong recent form under his belt having made the semis at Cincinnati this month where he appeared less than 100% fit during his close loss to James Blake. On paper the Russian has little to fear over the first three rounds and is likely to meet either mercurial young Briton Andy Murray (19th seed), wily Swedish veteran Jonas Bjorkman, or the tough, supremely fit Argentine competitor Guillermo Canas (14th seed).
The ladies
Anyone in touch with 2007 tennis reality will understand that Justine Henin and the Williams sisters are the by far and away the pedigree champions of the WTA. Between this trio they have allowed no other players even a sniff of the polish on a grand slam trophy this year.
Here's a quick recap
So far in 2007: Serena overcame popular scepticism and a lack of conditioning to win the Australian, Justine consolidated her vice-like grip on the French amidst an emotional reconciliation with her family (and in lieu of a painful divorce) and Venus re-ignited her love affair with Wimbledon (and passion for professional tennis?) in emphatic style.
NY loves a Champion
Defending US Open champion and blonde bombshell Maria Sharapova has been given a golden paved path to the third round where she will likely meet look-alike and play-alike Czech 13th seed Nicole Vaidisova. The hard hitting 18-year-old gave Wimbledon semifinalist Ana Ivanovic a mighty battle in the quarter-finals this year before losing 7-5 in the third after holding three match points at 5-4. Once Sharapova overpowers the Czech, a quarter-final appointment with one of the legion of young Russian women awaits: Anna Chakvetadze (sixth). Neither of these third and fourth round opponents appear to posses any weapons that Sharapova hasn't already honed, a quarter-final looks assured for the striking Russian.
US Open winner in 2004, the versatile Svetlana Kuznetsova may face former world No.1 Martina Hingis on her way to a quarter-final. Slovakia's Daniela Hantuchova (ninth) and Russian Nadia Petrova (seventh) will have their hands full fending off some dangerous floaters such as Australia's big serving Alicia Molik to determine who meets Kuznetsova in their - most competitive - section of the draw.
Odds are better than good that it will be a semi-final of the 'ova's and an encounter that may be too close to call.
The murkier half of the draw
In the first 32 of this half of the draw Serena Williams and Justine Henin are perfectly positioned to cut a remorseless scythe through the field before a quarter-final showdown. Barring an extremely off day at the office neither of these two champions should break much more than a light sweat on-route to meeting. Once there&Anything can happen.
In the following 32, the photo friendly Serbian women will start from opposite ends of the section and plan to plot a smooth course to the fourth round where each will have stern challenges to determine whether a final eight spot is earned. Jelena Jankovic (third) looks to face a potential fourth round hiccup in the shape of smooth moving, counter punching Russian Elena Dementieva (14th). Jankovic should, however, on form have too much class and punch for the baseline hugging Russian. Below them, Venus William (12th) and the other hot young Serb talent Ana Ivanovic will also plot an inexorable path to a fourth round, quarter-final deciding, encounter. Ivanovic will need to be at her very toughest physically and mentally to overcome Williams who taught the gregarious and clean hitting 19-year-old Eastern European a stern straight sets lesson in the Wimbledon semifinals this year. Historically Venus Williams doesn't lose to youngsters and certainly doesn't fear them. The streetwise American looks odds-on favourite to face Jankovic in their section's quarter-final.
Expect the unexpected
Of course in every tournament there are upsets and curveballs that mess with every punter's predictions - I'll be looking forward to some beauties playing havoc with mine.
The stage is set in the Big Apple for the biggest names in the game to duke-it-out in the business stages of arguably the most colourful and dramatic Grand Slam of the annual tennis calendar: Enjoy.
( NB - Sampras dominated Agassi, albeit not overwhelmingly 20-14. Bjorg abruptly curtailed his career after a string of losses to McEnroe; causing McEnroe to then lose his hunger in the absence of his Swedish muse. And 'Johnny Mac' dominated Connors late in their careers with a brutal 12 wins from the last 14 matches against his fellow fiery American.)
