The European Union must usher Kosovo towards independence from
Serbia by early 2008 even without a United Nations resolution or
face "chaos on its doorstep", an influential think-tank said.
A report by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said the
EU should proceed on the assumption that new talks starting later
this month will fail to close the chasm between Serbia and Kosovo's
90% ethnic Albanian majority.
Failure by key members of the 27-state bloc to support a
declaration of independence by ethnic Albanian leaders could lead
to an explosion of violence. Kosovo is "a ticking time bomb in the
EU's backyard", it said.
If Russia holds firm in its opposition to a UN resolution offering
Kosovo independence, the ICG said, the EU should take over
supervision of the territory and Britain, Germany, France and Italy
should gather as many allies as possible in recognising Kosovo
following the end of talks in December.
"The risks to Europe of inaction are substantial," it said.
The group warns that Kosovo leaders will be under huge internal
pressure to declare independence before 2008 and ask the UN mission
in charge since the 1998-99 war to leave.
"If they act and are not supported, Kosovo would fracture:
Serbia reclaiming the land pocket north of the Ibar River, Serbs
elsewhere in Kosovo fleeing, and eight years of internationally
guided institution-building lost."
"To avoid chaos on its doorstep, the EU and its member states must
now accept the primary responsibility for bringing Kosovo to
supervised independence," the ICG said.
Unrest in Kosovo, it said, could spread to neighbouring Macedonia
and Serbia's Presevo Valley, where large Albanian minorities fought
for greater rights in 2000 and 2001, and where tensions remain
beneath the surface.
Kosovo has been run by the United Nations since 1999, when NATO
bombed for 11 weeks to drive out Serb forces and halt the slaughter
of Albanians in a war with guerrillas
The report reflects the widely held assumption that the latest
diplomatic push for compromise - led by a troika of envoys from the
United States, Russia and the European Union - is destined to
fail.
The envoys are due to hold separate meetings with Serbs and
Albanians in Vienna on Aug 30.
A Russian threat to use its UN veto has blocked the adoption of a
Western-backed plan to grant Kosovo independence under European
Union supervision - the product of 13 months of sterile
Serb-Albanian talks led by UN envoy Martti Ahtisaari.
The ICG includes former foreign ministers, senior ambassadors and
political figures, including former Finnish president Ahtisaari,
who is Chairman Emeritus.
Serbia's state news agency Tanjug described the thinktank as a "pro-Albanian" lobby group for Kosovo independence.
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